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Trrursportation Forecast MethodoloQy In their report, "Transportation Energy Forecasts for the 2007 Integrated F,nergy Policy Report," the California Energy Commission projects that on-road VMT will increase at an annual rate of 1.509% per year through 2020". This tgure was used to estimate emission growth in the transportation sector for the Pleasanton forecast. ICLE[ chose to use projected VMT to forecast Pleasanton's transportation emissions despite the presence of other potential changes in emissions from the transportation sector. For example, the recently passed federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards and the state of California's pending tailpipe emission standards could significantly reduce the demand for transportation fuel in the State. Despite this, ICLEI chose to use VM"I' for two reasons. First, an analysis of potential fuel savings from pending policy measures at a scale that would be useful for the purpose of this report has not been conducted, nor would such an analysis produce a true business-as-usual estimation. Second, regardless of future changes in the composition of vehicles on the road as a result of state or federal ruletnaking, emissions froth the transportation sector will continue to be primarily determined by growth in VM"['.'~ Waste Forecast Metho~loloQy As with the residential sector, population is the primary determinate For emissions growth. Therefore, the compounded annual population growth rate for 2005 to 2020, which is 1.041%15 (as calculated from A[3AG population projections), was used to estimate tuture emissions in the waste sector. Figure 4 f•'orecasted Community Emissions by Sector Forecasted Community Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions by Sector (2020) Waste 4.6% /' Residential 12.7% Transportation 63.0% \ CommerciaV Industrial ~ 19.8% i I I ~~ Report available at: htt~_I/ww~±~.cner ca~ov/2OQ7puhlicatium/Cli(_000-20(17-009iC'f:(_'-60U-?007-01.19-til~.l'I)I_. Compounded Annual growth rate for 2005-2020 is calculated from Table 4 on page 12. In light of recent fuel cost increases, the calculation assumes high fuel cost scenario. 14 The California Air Resources Board has upheld VMT reduction as the primary factor in reducing emissions from transportation and has demonstrated that California will be unable to meet goals established in the Global Warming Solutions Act without dramatic reductions in VMT. 's Ibid 2005 C~'eenha,lse C-~s Emissions Irnentory, Cityaf Reasar>ton 11