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2.2.2. Corr>tYx,lnity Err~i ssi ons Forel~st
<br />Under a husiness-as-usual scenario, the City of Pleascrnton's emissions will grow over the nest decode
<br />and a /calf by approximately 28.5%, from 813,337 to 1,045,282 metric tons COze. To illustrate the
<br />potential emissions growth based on projected trends in energy ttse, driving habits, job growth, and
<br />population growth from the baseline year going Forward, ICLF,I conducted an emissions forecast for the
<br />year 2020. Figure 3 and Table 4 show the results of the forecast, while Figure 4 breaks down forecasted
<br />emissions by sector.
<br />Table 4 - ('nrnmunihv R~niccinnc l;rnwlh Prnierlinn.c by ,Ceclnr
<br /> Percent
<br />2005 Community Emissions
<br />2005 ~
<br />:020 Annual Growth Change
<br />from
<br />Growth Forecast by Sector
<br />
<br />- Rate
<br />
<br />- 2005 to
<br />__ 2020
<br />Residential I I x.565 1 ~Z.645 1.O~i l" ~ 16.8°~~
<br />CommerciaU Industrial 133,303 206,949 2.976% 55.2%
<br />Transportation 525,650 658,011 _ L509% 25.2%
<br />Waste 40,819 47,677 1.041% 16.8%
<br />TOTAL 813,337 1,045,282 -- 28.5%
<br />Residential Forecast Methodolot; y
<br />For the residential sector, ICLE[ calculated the compounded annual population growth rate" between
<br />2005 and 2020, using population projections from ABAG's Projections 2005, and the City's housing cap
<br />of 29,000 households. To predict the 2020 population, [CI,I?I calculated the predicted 2020 population
<br />per household from BAG data, and multiplied this number by the 29,000 household cap. "fhe resulting
<br />growth rate (1.041%) was used to estimate average annual compound growth in energy demand. ABAG
<br />estimates that the Pleasanton
<br />population was 68,200 in 2005, and Figure 3 Commwnity Emissions Forecast
<br />ICLE['s calculations predict a
<br />population of 79,658 itt 2020. F~nissions Forecast for 2020
<br />Commercial /Industrial Forecast
<br />Methodolo~y
<br />In an analysis performed by the
<br />Pleasanton Community Development
<br />Department in 2008, the City projected
<br />commercial, office, industrial floor
<br />space growth in several growth
<br />scenarios. ICLEI used these numbers
<br />to estimate total commercial/industrial
<br />floor space in 2020.12 From this, the
<br />calculated compounded annual growth
<br />rate of 2.976% was used to forecast
<br />emissions from the commercial and
<br />industrial sectors.
<br />1,100,000
<br />1,000,000
<br />soo,ooo
<br />soo,ooo
<br />700,000
<br />600,000
<br />500,000
<br />400,000
<br />300,000
<br />200,000
<br />100,000
<br />N
<br />0
<br />U
<br />w
<br />0
<br />E-
<br />u
<br />v
<br />0
<br />^ vvaste
<br />^ Transportation
<br />^ CommerciaV
<br />Industrial
<br />^ Residential
<br />~~ Compounded annual growth rate= ((2020 population/2005 population)^(1115))-I
<br />i2 ICLEI used 2006 numbers as a proxy for 2005 to estimate the compounded annual growth rate. ICLEI used the 2025 I3uild
<br />Out square footage fiom the "Concentrated Developmcnt/Mixed Use alternative" in the City's analysis to estimate 2020 square
<br />footage.
<br />2005 C3-eenhot.ise Cis Emissit~ns Irnentory, Cjtyaf Reasal~ton 10
<br />2005 2020
<br />
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