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Projected Enrollments from 2007 to 2017 Pleasanton Unified School District
<br />Projected District-Wide Enrollments: The Next Five Years
<br />The total enrollment is forecast to be relatively stable over the next half-decade. There is a projected
<br />reduction by 71 for the pending school year, but that is mainly due to graduation of the large current
<br />twelfth grade class. The specific projected enrollment change is from the current (October 2007)
<br />14,802 students to 14,731 in October 2008. The expected total remains at that level in the following
<br />year (i.e., a projected further decline by just three students, to 14,728) and then rises by a nominal 49
<br />over the next three years combined. Such small fluctuations would create a total enrollment in the
<br />vicinity of 14,777 in 2012, as is shown in Table 1 below.5 That is a difference of only 25 students from
<br />the current total (see lower right corner of the "boxed" figures in Table 1).
<br />These stable overall amounts hide varying expectations by grade level. All but one of the 71-student
<br />reduction for next year is at the high school (9-12) level. That loss, as noted above, is mainly due to a
<br />large graduating twelfth grade class. The projected elementary (K-5) and middle school (6-8) changes
<br />are by less than ten students each, for a combined difference of a drop by a single student (i.e., from
<br />the +6 and -7 shown in the top row of the "box" in the table). In 2009 and 2010, however, the high
<br />school difference becomes less significant while the elementary and middle school changes increase.
<br />The high school total rebounds by 45 during those two years, for a net three-year decline by 25
<br />students (or less than 1 %). The elementaries add a net of 147 students (+2%) and the middle schools
<br />lose 177 (-5%) from 2007 to 2010. The direction of change flip-flops again by grade level between
<br />2010 and 2012, with the elementaries losing a few and the middle school total recovering somewhat,
<br />resulting in five-year shifts by fewer than 100 students in each and a drop by just 37 at the high school
<br />level.
<br />Table 1: Actual and Projected District Enrollments, 2007 to 2017
<br /> Total Number of Students by Grade Group District
<br />Enrollment Subject K-5 6-8 9-12 Total
<br />Actual on October 3, 2007 6,112 3,546 5,144 14,802
<br />Projected for October 1, 2008 6,118 3,539 5,074 14,731
<br />Projected for October 1, 2009 6,164 3,453 5,111 14,728
<br />Projected for October 1, 2010 6,259 3,369 5,119 14,747
<br />Projected for October 1, 2011 6,218 3,420 5,112 14,750
<br />Projected for October 1, 2012 6,203 3,467 5,107 14,777
<br />Projected for October 1, 2017 5,936 3,546 5,119 14,601
<br />
<br /> Change In One Year, to Oct. 2008 6 -7 -70 -71
<br /> Change In Three Years, to Oct. 2010 147 -177 -25 -55
<br /> Chan a in Flve Years, to Oct. 2012 91 -79 -37 -25
<br />
<br />Change in Ten Years, to Oct. 2017 -176 0 -25 -201
<br />Note: Figures cover all students other than the NPS (non-public-school) students included in some State reports.
<br />s Whenever just a year is stated, such as 2012, the reference is for October of that year.
<br />Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 3
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