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pattern. Unless a district informs us otherwise, we will always project incoming inter-district amounts as an extrapolation of the current by-grade totals.2 Growth in incoming inter-district students in recent years, including by a net of another 15 this year, has contributed to the difference from the forecast. A third source of the difference is the new Community Day School, which we were not made aware of in the last update. The majority of those 27 students previously would have been lost from the district enrollment. Aside from these sources, the remaining overall enrollment is within one-half of 1 % of the projected amount. Clearly the key deviation is the growth in kindergarten. The possibility for this to continue, by degree, and an update of all of the other projection factors are discussed in this report. Economic Trends and Local Expectatlons• The Impact Qt the Mortgage Crlsls This is the second most difficult time in my career for projecting the following year's enrollment. The first was in the fall of 2001, after the combined impact of the "dot-com busy' and "9/11 ". No one was confident of how the latter factors were going to impact the immediate future. Most schools districts in the Bay Area, including many with previously rising enrollments, had an enrollment decline between 2000 and 2001 and all indications were that things could get worse.3 This led to what turned out to be overly pessimistic forecasts by both economists and demographers in late 2001 for the immediately following years. Although the current mortgage crisis does not approach the societal concerns right after 9/11, there is, nonetheless, uncertainty as to how this evolving situation will impact next year's enrollments. If foreclosure totals soar and homes become vacant for a few months, then even desirable communities such as Pleasanton could provide consequential enrollment reductions next year.4 That should be temporary, as those homes will be reoccupied shortly thereafter. New housing sales also could be slower than expected, but those units eventually will be sold. So the issue is mainly for the 2008-09 enrollment rather than as a potential ongoing trend. The district will need to watch how the enrollment evolves in the latter part of this school year and, if there are unusual reductions compared to previous years, then next year's forecast should be adjusted accordingly. Those adjustments will have little or no impact on the mid-range (three-to-five-year) and long-term (ten-year) expectations. We do not want to repeat the mistake of late 2001 in giving this issue more consideration than it is due, in terms of potential enrollment impact. This is simply a possibility, but not a high probability, that we want the district to be aware of in planning school staffing for the 2008-09 school year. All other of the forecast factors indicate relatively stable total enrollments. z This projected inter-district "extrapolation" Is for each single-grade population being graduated upward through the grades and modified where necessary for known causes such as "senior privilege". These inter-district assumptions exclude Pleasanton USD students (A) in all grades from the Uvermore USD part of "Ruby Hill" and (B) in the high school grades from Sunol Glen USD because those are treated as "resident" district students. a The Pleasanton USD continued to have enrollment growth between 2000-01 and 2001-02, but it was by less than 150 students, versus by more than 700 in the year before. ' We already are projecting a modest decline for 2008-09, but that is principally due to graduation of the large current twelfth grade class. Foreclosure-based vacancies, by contrast, could impact every grade. --------- -- Enrolfinertf Projection ConsuNants Page 2