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Projected Enrollments from 2007 to 2017 Pleasanton Unified School District Chart 1: Change in Enrollment Distribution from Areas with No New Housing since Sept. 2003 1200 1100 1000 y Oct 2003 900 . ~ -Oct. 2007 y 800 700 600 K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Grade Recent Resident Student Population Changes by Type of Existing Housing A key refinement in the analysis of the trends in existing housing is to determine the degree to which the overall patterns are shared by the various dwelling types and income levels (which are interpolated from the housing values). We generally find that trends common to the majority of neighborhoods are more likely to be ongoing, at least to some degree. By assigning a standardized, but nonetheless subjective, EPC classification to the dominant residential type in each of the 233 planning areas that we created and then aggregating the area counts for every such classification of existing dwellings, we have again been able to determine the diversity of the latest trends. These findings are summarized in Table 4 on pages 13-15, with additional information provided in Appendices B1 and B2. Understanding the Data in Table 4 Table 4 contains the resident totals of district-enrolled students in October of 2003 through 2007 from areas with virtually no new housing added in the last four years. The 2003 figures are shown mainly to indicate whether or not any unusual trends of the last three years also occurred in the previous year. Except for those "odd" trends, we have focused our analyses on the changes since 2004. The counts are shown in groups of three grades each (K-2, 3-5, 6-8 and 9-11, as well as K-12) so that we can easily show both (1) how the populations have changed as the students graduated upward by three grades over three years and (2) the general age distribution of the students. Existing "Modest & Moderate Income" SFD (single-family-detached) homes, for instance, had 296 students in K-2 in 2004 and 308 students in grades 3-5 this year, which was a net gain of 12 students in that population as it graduated upward by three grades. This is what the "12" in "3-Year Change into Next Group" means in ~` . ^ • i • 1 ~~ /~ ~ •~ • / • _ i . ~~~ '~ • r_ ' i • Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 1l