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Projected Enrollments from 2007 to 2017 Pleasanton Unified School District The recent advancement rates have significant shifts entering four grades in particular: first, third, ninth and twelfth (see lowest data row of Table 3). The 1.07 (a 7% rise) entering first grade is presumably due to some parents having placed their children in private kindergarten programs and then enrolling them in the district schools starting with first grade. The 1.04 (+4%) increase entering ninth grade may reflect a few students coming out of private K-8 programs. And the 0.97 (-3%) rate in the "graduation" from the eleventh to twelfth grades may be due to a few high school dropouts. That is an exceptionally high rate entering twelfth." The cause of the only other notable rate, the 1.04 entering third grade, is unknown by this demographer. That is an unusual grade for a consequential increase, but it clearly exists in all four years of advancement (such as the rise from 836 students in second grade in 2006 to 871 in third grade in 2007), so we have essentially continued that growth in the forecast from existing housing. All of the remaining rates are smaller adjustments of between plus and minus 2%, which are not key trend factors by themselves, especially when the student data is separated into housing types and price ranges, as is shown in Appendix B2. The more significant finding is the cumulative impact rate over several grades. Such a rate, especially between the first and eighth grades, shows primarily the net effect of families moving into and out of the district from the existing housing. (Whereas the rates entering first and ninth, as already mentioned, can reflect the impact of private schools.) For this study, we have calculated the cumulative rate from the first through eighth grades, which totals to a 10% increase (the "1.10" that is "boxed" in the lower right part of Table 3). What this means is that, if these rates continue, then for every 100 students in first grade today there would be, seven years hence, 110 eighth graders from the same homes. Students from new dwellings would be in addition to that. This cumulative rate clearly shows that there is a net enrollment gain coming from housing turnover. That gain also has increased slightly from the 7% and 9% calculations in our last two studies. Two other items in Table 3 are worth noting. The first is that the total student population, while having increased by 47 in the last year, is still below the total in 2003 from the units that existed then. Those residences had 12,903 students in 2003 and now provide 12,758, for a difference of 145 less students. This again indicates that new housing was the main source of the recent enrollment growth. The second item to note is where the gains and losses are within the K-12 population from those homes. The current counts are highest in grades 10-12. This is because a "bubble" that peaked in the sixth, eighth and ninth grades in 2003 (see bold boxing in the top row of Table 3) is now in the high school grades (see bold boxing in the lower row of Table 3). There has also been a small net increase in kindergarten and first over that four-year period. In all of the intervening grades except seventh, however, the current totals are significantly lower than four years ago (see Chart 1 on the following page). Most of those grades are down by at least 50 students. This occurred because of a clear distributional slant in that previous population, with progressively smaller numbers from the middle to lowest grades. Only the modest turnaround in kindergarten departed from this aging trend. That could be an indication the low point has been passed in kindergarten, with future gains possible. We had virtually the same findings a year ago. The only difference is that the rise in kindergarten has now occurred three years in a row from the existing units. This growth continuity more strongly suggests that a modest rebound of families with young children may be underway. The following section explores this possibility further. " These figures exclude students attending Horizon High and the new Community Day School, so some of that 3% reduction presumably is from transfers to those schools, which makes the true dropout rate even lower. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 10