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Projected Enrollments from 2007 to 2017 Pleasanton Unified School District that section of the table (see lowest row in top section of page 13). We also show how the K-2 group has evolved during that time, which was a net gain of 22 students (the boxed "22") due to a rise from 296 to 318. That shift in K-2 is "boxed" because it is an important indication of whether the families of the students are getting older, with declining future kindergarten amounts likely, or are instead becoming younger (through turnover), thereby generating potential pending kindergarten growth. Since the distribution has changed from a strong tilt toward the upper elementary and secondary grades in 2004 to slightly more students in K-2 (318) than 3-5 (308), while still having far more in 9-11 (388), there appears to a mix of mainly aging families but also some younger parents having moved into these neighborhoods. That strong tilt toward the high school grades still indicates a pending reduction in K-12, but at least the numbers have turned around slightly in the lowest grades, which suggests stable or even moderately rising elementary totals (from these homes). Key Findings from the Data in Table 4 There is significant divergence in some of the recent student population shifts by housing category. If one focuses on just the boxed numbers in Table 4, there is a general trend of student growth from the "Modest" through "Modern Upper Middle Income" detached and all non-duet attached (ATT) units.12 Those gains are disproportionately, and sometimes entirely, in the K-2 group. "Traditional Middle Income" SFD homes, for example, added 27 students in K-2 despite growing by only eight students overall. What differs between these less expensive groups is the degree of growth in each of those populations. The student totals jumped by over 10% since 2004 in both the "Modest" and "Upscale" (non-duet) ATT complexes (see top of page 14), with even larger increases in K-2. These rates of growth are unlikely to continue for an extended period of time, as those ATT units already have higher average numbers of students per unit (based on EPC sampling) than in most other districts. While the desirability of the district schools is clearly driving both this increase and those higher average ratios, there nonetheless is a realistic upper limit that, on average, will be reached. If a theoretical complex of small (one- and two-bedroom) ATT units shifted from averaging one student in every four units to one student in three in just the last three years, that does not mean it will average one in every two units in another five years and then three students in every four units in ten years. The higher probability is to reach a maximum somewhere under one in every two units, as the majority of one bedroom units are unlikely to have students. Additional student growth is probable from these ATT dwellings (as the larger totals now in K-2 graduate into the upper grades), but not at these latest rates for much longer. The totals from the'`Modest" through "Modern Upper Middle Income" (i.e., on small lots with minimal yards) detached homes, by contrast, had less significant growth rates of 1 % to 5% since 2004. Usually these more sustainable rates would suggest ongoing K-12 gains if not for one factor: the "bubble" now in the high school grades (see top of half of page 13). Even with further growth in K-2, the loss through graduation of that bubble from the traditional (large-lot) less expensive SFD homes strongly points to an overall student decline in the next three years. There probably will be simultaneous gains in the elementary grades and even greater reductions in the secondary grades during that time. The real divergence from the aforementioned trends occurred in "Traditional Upper Middle Income" through "Highest Income" SFD residences. These built-before-2003 dwellings already have declining student populations, in some cases by much more than 10% in the last three (and four) years, and will have further reductions based on the current distribution through the grades. And the K-2 counts are all much lower than in 2003, so there is little sign of an increase of young families moving in. The K-2 drop from "Upper & Highest Income", in particular, has been significant. That fell from 300 to 211. 'Z Attached (ATT) housing includes apartments, condominiums, townhouses, plexes and duets. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 12