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San Francisco Bay Area Draft Regional Housing Needs Allocation, 41h Revision As required by statute, ABAG will assign a share of the regional need to the San Mateo subregion "in a proportion consistent with the distribution of households" in Projections 2007. The subregion is responsible for completing its own RHNA process that is parallel to, but separate from, the regional RHNA process. The subregion will create its own methodology, issue draft allocations, handle the revision and appeal processes, and then issue final allocations to members of the subregion. Although the subregion is working independently of the regional RHNA process, ABAG is ultimately responsible for ensuring that all of the region's housing need is allocated. Thus, if the subregion fails at any point in its attempt to develop a final RHNA allocation for the subregion, ABAG must complete the allocation process for the members of the subregion. In the event that the San Mateo subregion fails to complete the RHNA process, the HMC recommends the methodology include the following guidelines for handling the allocation of units to jurisdictions within the subregion: I. If the members of the subregion adopts a "default allocation," ABAG will allocate using the default allocation. A "default allocation" is the allocation which a member of the San Mateo RHN A subregion receives if it '"opts out" of the subregion. 2. If the subregion fails before ABAG has made any allocation, ABAG combines the subregional share with the rest of the regional need and allocates the total regional need to the entire region using ABAG's RHNA methodology. 3. If the subregion fails after ABAG has made its initial allocation, ABAG separately allocates the subregional share among only the members of the subregion. ABAG uses its RHNA methodology to do so. This approach is recommended by the HMC because it minImIZeS the extent of any reallocations that could occur as a result of subregional failure and preserves the integrity of the respective efforts of ABAG and C/CAG. Keeping San Mateo separated once ABAG has completed its initial allocation also provides the most certainty to all jurisdictions about what their allocation will be. VI. Regional Projections Every two years, ABAG produces a long-run regional forecast called Projections. The Projections forecast provides specific information for population, households, employment and other related variables. In Projections 2007, values are reported for year 2000, and then for each five year increment to 2035. Several related models are used to perform the forecast. The economic model balances demand for the production of goods and services with the supply of productive capacity. The demographic model uses birth rates, death rates and migration data to forecast future population using a cohort-survival model. A great deal of data is required by the models, including information on economic relationships and trends, population-related information like births, deaths and migration, as well as land use and land use policy data. Since Projections 2003, ABAG has assumed the "Network of Neighborhoods" land use pattern, as developed through the Smart Growth Strategy/Regional Livability Footprint Project. This pattern expects higher levels of housing production. It also assumes that an increasing proportion of regional growth occurs near transit and in existing urban areas. In the Projections 2007 November 2006, Page 15