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<br />San Francisco Bay ...\rea <br /> <br />Draft Regional Housing Needs Allocation, 4th Revision <br /> <br />forecast, additional housing production and a shift in the pattern of development primarily occurs <br />in the later part of the forecast. Earlier in the forecast, population growth is generally consistent <br />with the California Department of Finance (DOF) forecast. The distribution of growth is <br />generally consistent with local general plans. <br /> <br />ABAG has continually collected information on local land use as part of its modeling efforts. The <br />forecast is produced for nearly 1400 census tracts in the region and shows the existing land use <br />and the capacity of each tract to support additional population or economic activities. <br /> <br />Because the forecast is based on local land use information, forecasted growth occurs in locations <br />that are consistent with local plans. However, even with 1400 census tracts, only so much detailed <br />information can be included. We may know that moderate growth can occur in an area without <br />specifically understanding that a portion of that area is a nature preserve. We may know that <br />growth should not occur in an area, but it may not be clear whether it is due to a physical <br />limitation, or a general plan policy. <br /> <br />November 2006, Page 16 <br />