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<br />Proiected Enrollments from 2005 to 2015
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<br />PIeBsBnton Unified School District
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<br />Table 1: Actual and Projected District October Enrollment, 2005 to 2015
<br /> Total Number of Students by Grade Group District
<br />Enrollment Subiect K-5 6-8 9-12 Total
<br />Actual on October 6, 2005 6,054 3,490 4,974 14,518
<br />Projected for October 1, 2006 6,040 3,477 5,125 14,642
<br />Projected for October 1, 2007 6,003 3,508 5,141 14,652
<br />Projected for October 1, 2008 5,984 3,528 5,119 14,631
<br />Projected for October 1 , 2009 5,976 3,474 5,143 14,593
<br />Projected for October 1, 2010 5,980 3,407 5,115 14,502
<br />Projected for OCtober 1 , 2011 5,916 3,422 5,109 14,447
<br />Projected for October 1, 2012 5,883 3,424 5,075 14,382
<br />Projected for October 1, 2015 5,783 3,338 4,936 14,057
<br />Change in One Year, to Oct. 2006 -14 -13 151 124
<br />Change In Three Years, to Oct. 2008 -70 38 145 113
<br />Change in Five Years, to Oct. 2010 -74 -83 141 -16
<br />Change in Ten Years, to Oct. 2015 -271 -152 -38 -461
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<br />Note: Figures cover all students that can be counted in district CBEDS reports, including SDC & home school.
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<br />populations now in grades 7-8. This decline should continue for three more years, as the tail of the
<br />bubble graduates upward (from 3-5 to 6-8). The middle schools will lose the last grade at the top of that
<br />bubble (i.e. the current eighth graders) next year, but then should have modest gains as the balanced
<br />totals in 3-7 graduate upward and add students from new housing in the process. It is only when the
<br />smaller totals now in grades K-2 reach the middle schools that significant decline occurs.
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<br />This focusing on the bubble over-simplifies all of the analytical factors that go into these projections,
<br />but it does provide a good quick insight into why the growth is concentrated In the high school grades.
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<br />Prolected District-Wide Enrollments: from 2010 to 2015
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<br />The long-range forecast is for a decline by about 450 students between 2010 and 2015, to around
<br />14,050, but that is simply an estimate. There is a broad range of possibility in any five-to-ten-year time
<br />frame. Even a slight Increase is conceivable during those years. If there is a notable deviation from the
<br />projections, however, the more likely scenario is for lower enrollments. The expected condo and
<br />apartment complexes in the Hacienda Business Park and by the proposed West Pleasanton BART
<br />station may not be built until after 2015. The aging population trends in existing housing could cause a
<br />more rapidly declining kindergarten total, with subsequent impacts on the enrollment in the other
<br />grades over time (i.e. foremost at the elementary level, but eventually in the secondary grades as well).
<br />Combining those possibilities could lead to an enrollment of as little as 13,100 in 2015. That would be
<br />a reduction by over 1,400 students from the current total. With such a broad potential range until
<br />those factors are more clearly determined, we recommend focusing on the forecast for the next five
<br />years, with the long-range numbers used oniv for modeling "what if" scenarios in the facility planning.
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<br />Enrollment Proiection Consultants
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