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Proiected Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 Pleasanton Unified SchoDI District Prolected Resident Student PODulatlons bv Exlstlna Attendance Areas This forecast is again based on an analysis of where the students live (the resident population') rather than the schools they happen to attend (the attending enrollment). This type of analysis is especially suitable for the Pleasanton situation due to a large amount of across-attendance-boundary enrollment. Such a high degree of intra-district enrollment has blurred the ability to see many of the student population changes that are occurring in different sections of the community. By coding all of the current student addresses to planning areas that represent various housing types and locations, we have been able to identify and evaluate how the student population is evolving in each situation. We flip back-and-forth between these "population" and "enrollment" amounts in the text below, and it is important to remember the distinction between these two types. Understanding the Data in Table 2 Table 2 (on page 5) contains two sets of data for each school. The figures on the left (under 'The Enrollment part of Table 2') show the difference between the current enrollment and the relevant resident student population for each school. Lydiksen, for instance, had 695 enrolled students on October 6, 2005, which was 86 more than the resident population (in grades K-5) of 609 students. This difference is identified by the "86" in the column titled "Net Adjustment from Resident Students". The second set of data, on the right side of the table (under "The Resident Student Population part of Table 2'), covers the current and projected pending resident amounts. These are not projected enrollments. They do indicate, however, the extent to which the current attendance areas might continue to be suitable for the next four years without any adjustments. For example, the resident K-5 population in the Donlon attendance area declines from 701 this year to 633 in 2009, which is a 68- student decrease. This amount of reduction is shown in the bold "-68" in the rightmost column. That loss would create a surplus capacity for over 100 students at DORion (based on a planned capacity of 750, as is shown in the table) while other schools could be operating at above their desired capacities. Short- Term Proiections bv Existino School Attendance Areas Although the aggregate projections through 2009 are for only modest elementary and middle school declines, the expected population shifts within individual attendance areas are more significant (in percentage terms). Donlon, Walnut Grove and Fairlands have large projected K-5 losses, with 68, 67 and 34 fewer resident students, respectively, in 2009. The current Hearst, Alisal and Mohr regions, by contrast, will have notably higher totais. Hearst should add 32 in 2006 but stabilizes thereafter. Alisal is slated to grow by 22 next year and 42 through 2009. The Mohr region gains 21 during that period. The three remaining elementary attendance areas (Lydiksen, Valley View and Vintage Hills) should have some variation in their popuiations during the next four years, but the projected net changes to 2009 are by less than a dozen students each.5 . "Resident" throughout this report means physical resident, not legai resident. , The majority of the resident increase for Alisal is from a portion of the "Ironwood" development ("The Estates") that can only be accessed via Mohr Ave. and the adjacent Mohr neighborhoods. The two current K-5 students from that northern oart opted to attend Mohr rather than Alisal, which suggests that students from the pending homes in that area will have a greater impact on Mohr An attendance boundary adjustment to correspond with this road pattern would shift 15 and 29 resident K-5 students from Alisal to Mohr in 2006 and 2009, respectively. Enrollment PrOlectior: ::'onsultantc Page L