SR 06:090A - Laserfiche WebLink

Proiected Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 Pleasanton Unified School District Prolected District-Wide Enrollments: The Next Five Years The overall enrollment should rise next year but could be in decline shortly thereafter. Our projection is for an increase from the current (October 6,2005) total of 14,518 students to 14,642 next October. That is a net of 124 additional students. Only minimal change is forecast during the following 36 months, when the projections reach a "peak" of 14,652 in 2007 Oust 10 higher than in 2006) and then drop by 59 in the next two years, to 2009.' A more significant drop by 91 students is projected in the following year, resulting in 14,502 students in 2010. While that results in a five-year change of a loss of just 16 students, it nonetheless is the first time we have projected a decline in the total enrollment compared to the current figure. These totals are shown in the far right column of Table 1 on page :3, with the amounts of change shown in bold at the bottom. This rise-and-decline is not evenly distributed between the elementary (K-5), middle (6-8) and high school (9-12) grade levels. To the contrary, for next fall, the projected changes are small losses in K-5 and 6-8 that are more than offset by a larger gain in 9-12. The projected elementary total is down by 14. The middie school figure drops by 13. With a potential deviation of 1 % from the forecast, both of those reductions are so small that there actually instead could be nominal gains. The declines also could be slightly larger, however, especially if a greater-than-expected percentage of the housing currently being built is not occupied by then. That still would not alter the likelihood of an overall increase in 2006 because the projected rise in the high school total is a significant 151 students (or between 100 and 200 with a 1% margin)2 These changes in the grade-level totals shift somewhat from the second to fifth years. The high school estimate stays in the low-to-mid 5,1 OOs, or about 150 above the current amount. The middle school figure bounces around, including recovering to a net increase by 38 to 2008 and then a net loss of 83 to 2010 (both compared to the current total). And the elementary enrollment falls by a total of 70 over the next three years before stabilizing around 5,980 between 2008 and 2010. Extrapolations of (1) recent student population trends and (2) the current enrollment distribution through the grades are the primary reasons for this growth imbalance. The district's secondary-school population rose significantly in recent years as an enrollment "bubble" both graduated upward through the grades and increased in the process. Although there are now 469 more middle school students and greater than 1,200 additional high school students than six years ago, that bubble is still not fully into the high school grades. The current twelfth grade population, while big by historical standards, will rise even further next year, as the larger total now in grades 8-11 moves fully into the high schools and is augmented by students from new homes. This should result in a twelfth grade enrollment of about 1,250 next year and 1,300 in four years, compared to the current 1,164' The loss of that same bubble, combined with slightly lower kindergarten amounts (compared to the current total), shouid cause the elementary and middle school populations to decline during the next five years. Currently the top of the bubble is in grades 8-11, with an average of nearly 1,250 students per grade. The 'tail-end" of the bubble, In grades 3-7, averages 1,100 per grade. Grades K-2 average only 940. The elementary total already fell slightly in the two previous years as it lost the relatively large , Whenever just a year is stated, such as 2009, the reference is for October of that year. 2 There are factors that could cause this 1 % margin to be slightly exceeded in an individual grade level next year, such as due to an unusually small or large kindergarten class at the elementary level or changes in the dropout rates at the high schools, but the K-12 total should be within 1%. 3 Totals by grade are shown in Appendix A~" and exclude Horizon students, who are counted separately. Enrollment Proiection Consultants Pape 2