|
extremes in every region across the globe."52 These climate change impacts include climate change
<br /> sea level rise, increased weather extremes,and substantial ice loss in the Arctic over the past three
<br /> decades.
<br /> According to California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment, Statewide temperatures from 1986 to
<br /> 2016 were approximately 0.6 to 1.1'C higher than those recorded from 1901 to 1960. Potential
<br /> impacts of climate change in California may include reduced water supply from snowpack, sea level
<br /> rise, more extreme heat days per year, more large forest fires, and more drought years.53 In
<br /> addition to Statewide projections, California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment includes regional
<br /> reports that summarize climate impacts and adaptation solutions for nine regions of the State and
<br /> regionally-specific climate change case studies.54 However,while there is growing scientific
<br /> consensus about the possible effects of climate change at a global and Statewide level, current
<br /> scientific modeling tools are unable to predict what local impacts may occur with a similar degree of
<br /> accuracy.A summary follows of some of the potential effects that could be experienced in California
<br /> as a result of climate change.
<br /> Hydrology and Sea Level Rise
<br /> Climate change could affect the intensity and frequency of storms and flooding.55 Furthermore,
<br /> climate change could induce substantial sea level rise in the coming century. Rising sea level
<br /> increases the likelihood of and risk from flooding.The rate of increase of global mean sea levels
<br /> between 1993 to 2020,observed by satellites, is approximately 3.3 millimeters per year,double the
<br /> twentieth century trend of 1.6 millimeters per year.56,57 Global mean sea levels in 2013 were about
<br /> 0.23 meter higher than those of 1880.58 Sea levels are rising faster now than in the previous two
<br /> millennia, and the rise will probably accelerate, even with robust GHG emission control measures.
<br /> The most recent IPCC report predicts a mean sea level rise of 11 to 21.5 inches by 2100 under the
<br /> lowest emissions scenario and a rise of 25 to 40 inches by 2100 under the very high emissions
<br /> scenario.59
<br /> A rise in sea levels could erode 31 to 67 percent of California beaches and cause flooding of
<br /> approximately 370 miles of coastal highways during 100-year storm events.This would also
<br /> jeopardize California's water supply due to saltwater intrusion and induce groundwater flooding
<br /> 52 IPCC.2021.Climate Change 2021:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the
<br /> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Masson-Delmotte,V.,P.Zhai,A.Pirani,S.L.Connors,C.Pean,S.Berger,N.Caud,Y.Chen,L.
<br /> Goldfarb,M.I.Gomis,M.Huang,K.Leitzell,E.Lonnoy,J.B.R.Matthews,T.K.Maycock,T.Waterfield,O.Yeleko,R.Yu and B.Zhou(eds.)]
<br /> Cambridge University Press.https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FuII_Report.pdf
<br /> 53 California,State of.2018.California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment Statewide Summary Report.August 27,2018.
<br /> https://www.en a rgy.ca.gov/sites/defa u It/fi les/2019-11/Statewi d e_Reports-SUM-CCCA4-2018-013_Statewide_Su m ma ry_Report_ADA.pdf
<br /> 54 Ibid.
<br /> 55 Ibid.
<br /> 56 World Meteorological Organization.2013.A summary of current and climate change findings and figures:a WMO information note.
<br /> March 2013.https://Iibrary.wmo.int/opac/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=lS892#.Wt9-Z8gvzlU
<br /> 57 National Aeronautics and Space Administration.2020."Global Climate Change—Vital Signs of the Planet—Sea Level."
<br /> https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
<br /> 58 Ibid.
<br /> 59 IPCC.2021.Climate Change 2021:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the
<br /> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Masson-Delmotte,V.,P.Zhai,A.Pirani,S.L.Connors,C.Pean,S.Berger,N.Caud,Y.Chen,L.
<br /> Goldfarb,M.I.Gomis,M.Huang,K.Leitzell,E.Lonnoy,J.B.R.Matthews,T.K.Maycock,T.Waterfield,O.Yeleksi,R.Yu and B.Zhou(eds.)]
<br /> Cambridge University Press.https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wgl/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf
<br />
|