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loss in project value, the actual developer was allowed to make a measly $4,500,000 <br /> contribution to the City's low income housing fund, thus saving the developer about <br /> $9,074,160 in lost project value ($13,574,160 - $4,500,000). Without that special deal, <br /> the $9,074,160 additional burden of 15% inclusionary probably would have made that <br /> project infeasible. Those are the project level impacts of the inclusionary zoning <br /> b. Direct Impact on Local Housing Prices <br /> Housing supply occurs within a larger housing market. In all markets, including housing <br /> markets, when the marginal cost of producing a unit of production, like a house, is <br /> higher than the price level, production stops until the price level exceeds the marginal <br /> cost of producing the next unit. So, adding a cost to housing production, like the cost of <br /> inclusionary subsidies, means housing production stops until price levels rise high <br /> enough to cover that additional cost. With any increase in housing demand, the cost of <br /> any inclusionary subsidies passes through into the price level of all new and used <br /> market rate housing. This results in tremendous negative leverage —the inclusionary <br /> analysis I did in the year 2000 showed that for every $1 of rent subsidy generated by <br /> inclusionary rent controls, market rate housing consumers will pay $13 in increased <br /> housing cost (Exhibit D at Bates p. 13). That is an awful cost-benefit ratio. <br /> c. Effect on Housing Supply- Secondary Impact <br /> But, the impact of inclusionary rent controls is far worse than just a dollar for dollar pass <br /> through into the housing price level. If that were the only effect of 15% inclusionary <br /> rent controls, local market prices would have lifted by about 7.15% and reached a new <br /> equilibrium. The bigger problem is that the inclusionary cost burden makes some or <br /> most new housing projects infeasible. When rising demand grinds against restricted <br /> supply, housing prices spin out, and up disproportionately — as they have in California. <br /> The housing made infeasible by that cost burden, if built, would enforce current price <br /> levels by pouring new housing units into the market. Much or most of the huge 26% <br /> excess in California housing inflation over U.S. housing inflation during the 2014-2022 <br /> RHNA Cycle is likely the result of the price and rent controls on new housing <br /> construction, with their devastating impacts upon housing supply. <br /> New construction is always more expensive than existing housing, but typically higher <br /> quality. Adding inclusionary costs on top makes new construction that much more <br /> expensive than existing building — and non-competitive. Existing property owners and <br /> landlords get to free ride on the rising price level of housing. Existing housing is <br /> protected on the downside (somewhat) because of lower initial costs, and existing <br /> mortgage payments stay constant. <br /> When the overall price level starts to rise to cover the inclusionary cost, e.g. 7.15%, the <br /> inclusionary burdened new housing supply does not materialize in sufficient quantity. <br /> The resulting scarcity causes the price levels to rise by more than the actual amount of <br /> rent subsidies, by far. Meanwhile, the new housing project has to show a profit <br /> 6 <br />