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JDEDZ PROJECT REVIEW SEPTEMBER 2017 Figure 8 E-COMMERCE SHARE OF TOTAL RETAIL SALE -8- 14. 0% ALES Source: Internet Retailer analysis of U.S. Commerce Department figures that factors out the sales of goods not normally purchased online such as automobiles, fuel, and sales in restaurants and bars. This trend shows no sign of abating, and it requires a rethinking of the retail square footage that any given amount of demand will support. While new stores and shopping centers will certainly thrive in the coming years, the quantity and location of those spaces is in flux. Retailers and shopping center developers are acutely aware of this reality, and Pleasanton should be, as well. Having established that household demand should be based on 19.1% of income rather than 25%, and that holding constant even that lower share demand share is unrealistic, it is clear that a thorough analysis of market demand in Pleasanton might change the finding of the ALH report that Costco and the rest of the JDEDZ retail mix will have negligible impact on the Pleasanton market. It is worth noting that California does require merchants to collect and remit the municipal share of sales tax for reported online sales to Pleasanton residents, but that still misses a substantial (if currently unknowable) share of sales (made by small merchants either on their own sites or through a marketplace such as Amazon or EBay). Civic Economics 16 P14-0852 and PUD -105, JDEDZ - Public Comments Provided for October 11, 2017 Planning Commission Meeting 54 14.0% 11.7% 12.0% 9 5% 10.6% 10.0% 7.9% 8.7% — 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Internet Retailer analysis of U.S. Commerce Department figures that factors out the sales of goods not normally purchased online such as automobiles, fuel, and sales in restaurants and bars. This trend shows no sign of abating, and it requires a rethinking of the retail square footage that any given amount of demand will support. While new stores and shopping centers will certainly thrive in the coming years, the quantity and location of those spaces is in flux. Retailers and shopping center developers are acutely aware of this reality, and Pleasanton should be, as well. Having established that household demand should be based on 19.1% of income rather than 25%, and that holding constant even that lower share demand share is unrealistic, it is clear that a thorough analysis of market demand in Pleasanton might change the finding of the ALH report that Costco and the rest of the JDEDZ retail mix will have negligible impact on the Pleasanton market. It is worth noting that California does require merchants to collect and remit the municipal share of sales tax for reported online sales to Pleasanton residents, but that still misses a substantial (if currently unknowable) share of sales (made by small merchants either on their own sites or through a marketplace such as Amazon or EBay). Civic Economics 16 P14-0852 and PUD -105, JDEDZ - Public Comments Provided for October 11, 2017 Planning Commission Meeting 54