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Community Choice Aggregation Feasibility Analysis Alameda County <br /> Table 12. Higher Natural Gas Prices Sensitivity Results, 2017-2030 <br /> Average Natural Average Rate <br /> Gas Price Differential <br /> ($/MMBtu) (C/kWh) <br /> Base Case 4.85 2.1 <br /> Higher Natural Gas Prices 7.67 1.2 <br /> Lower PG&E Portfolio Cost Sensitivity <br /> While changes to natural gas prices and renewable power prices affect both the CCA and PG&E, <br /> dampening the impact on the CCA's cost competitiveness, reductions to the costs to operate and <br /> maintain PG&E's nuclear and hydroelectric facilities would provide cost savings to PG&E that <br /> would not be offset by cost savings to the CCA. MRW considered a case in which PG&E's <br /> overall generation rates are 10%below the base case, driven by reductions to PG&E's nuclear <br /> and hydroelectric portfolio costs. Under such a scenario, the 2017-2030 average rate differential <br /> would be reduced by 1 cent per kWh relative to the base case scenario. <br /> Table 13. Lower PG&E Portfolio Sensitivity Results,2017-2030 <br /> Average PG&E Average Rate <br /> Rate(C/kWh) Differential <br /> (C/kWh) <br /> Base Case 10.4 2.1 <br /> Lower PG&E Portfolio Costs 9.3 1.1 <br /> Stress Case and Sensitivity Comparisons <br /> For all but the Diablo Canyon relicensing case, rate differentials(i.e., the CCA's competitive <br /> positions) are lower in the sensitivity cases than in the base case scenario, for all years from 2017 <br /> to 2030(Figure 21). To evaluate a more extreme scenario, MRW developed a stress case that <br /> combines all the negative sensitivity cases: (1)higher renewable power prices, (2) lower PG&E <br /> portfolio costs, (3)higher PCIA exit fees, and(4) higher natural gas prices. The 2017-2030 <br /> average rate differential for this stress case is negative, at-0.70/kWh, meaning that CCA <br /> customer costs would exceed PG&E customer costs under this scenario. <br /> July,2016 29 MRW 8.t.Associates,LLC <br />