22 - Laserfiche WebLink

Community Choice Aggregation Feasibility Analysis Alameda County Higher Exit Fee (PCIA) Sensitivity PG&E's PCIA exit fees are subject to considerable uncertainty. Under the current methodology, PCIA rates can swing dramatically from one year to the next, and this methodology is currently under review and may be adjusted in the coming years. MRW therefore evaluated a stress case in which PCIA rates don't fall after 2018, as anticipated in the base case,but instead remain at 2018 levels through 2030. This increases the 2030 PCIA to 250% of its base case value. The impact of this stress case is to reduce the 2017-2030 average rate differential by 0.70/kWh relative to the base case. Table 11. Higher PCIA Exit Fee Sensitivity Results,2017-2030 Average PCIA Rate Average Rate (C/kWh) Differential (C/kWh) Base Case 1.4 2.1 Higher Exit Fees(PCIA) 2.1 1.4 Higher Natural Gas Prices Sensitivity Natural gas prices have been low and relatively steady over the last few years,but they have historically been quite volatile and subject to significant swings from local supply disruptions (e.g., Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005). MRW analyzed a gas price sensitivity case using the U.S. Energy Information Administration's High Scenario natural gas prices forecast,42 which is up to 60%higher than MRW's base case forecast in some years. Natural gas price increases affect power supply costs for both Alameda County CCA and PG&E; however, the nuclear and hydroelectric capacity in PG&E's resource mix makes PG&E less sensitive than Alameda County CCA to changes in natural gas prices. The net effect of higher natural gas prices is therefore to increase CCA rates relative to PG&E rates43 (i.e., reduce the average rate differential). Under the sensitivity conditions considered, the 2017-2030 average rate differential decreases relative to the base case by 0.90/kWh. 42 U.S. Energy Information Administration."2015 Annual Energy Outlook,"Table 13 43 For the Scenario 3 the high gas natural prices case is favorable(i.e.,the rate differential is higher than the rate differential for the Base Case). July,2016 28 MRW&Associates,LLC