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Community Choice Aggregation Feasibility Analysis Alameda County Table 9. Diablo Canyon Relicensing Sensitivity Results, 2017-2030 Average PG&E Average Rate Rate(4/kWh) Differential(t/kWh) Base Case 10.36 2.1 Diablo Canyon Relicensing 11.75 3.4 Higher Renewable Power Prices Sensitivity This sensitivity case evaluates the impact of higher prices for renewable power on the CCA's financial viability. As discussed in Appendix B, in the base case,renewable power prices are flat in nominal dollars through 2022, based on the assumption that projected declines in renewable development costs will offset increases associated with the planned expiration of federal renewable tax credits.39'4° In the Higher Renewable Power Prices sensitivity, we assume that renewable prices would be flat in nominal dollars through 2022 if it were not for the tax credit expirations and add the impact of the tax credit expirations to the base case prices. Average renewable power prices in this scenario are 0-10% higher than in the base case scenario through 2021, about 20%higher in 2021 and 2022, and 30% higher after 2022 when the solar investment tax credit is reduced to 10%. These higher prices affect both the CCA and PG&E,but they have a greater effect on the CCA because PG&E has significant amounts of renewable resources under long-term contract. The impact of this stress case is to reduce the 2017-2030 average rate differential by 0.30/kWh relative to the base case. Table 10. Higher Renewable Power Prices Sensitivity Results,2017-2030 Average Renewable Average Rate Power Prices Differential (4/kWh)41 (C/kWh) Base Case 5.4 2.1 Higher Renewable Power Prices 6.6 1.8 39 Investment Tax Credit(ITC) which is commonly used by solar developers,is scheduled to remain at its current level of 30%through 2019 and then to fall over three years to 10%,where it is to remain. The federal Production Tax Credit(PTC),which is commonly used by wind developers,is scheduled to be reduced for facilities commencing construction in 2017-2019 and eliminated for subsequent construction. U.S.Department of Energy.Business Energy Investment Tax Credit(ITC). http://energy.gov/savings/business- energy-investment-tax-credit-itc;U.S.Department of Energy.Electricity Production Tax Credit(PTC). http://energy.gov/savings/renewabl e-electricity-production-tax-credit-ptc 40 The base case forecast would also be consistent with a scenario in which the tax credit expirations are delayed. 41 Average for solar and wind utility scale generation(>3MW),not including local Alameda County generation. July,2016 27 MRW&Associates,LLC