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Community Choice Aggregation Feasibility Analysis Alameda County Chapter 3: Cost and Benefit Analysis As described in the prior chapter, as part of the pro forma analysis, MRW calculated Alameda County CCA rates that would, where feasible, cover CCA costs and maintain long-term competitiveness with PG&E. This chapter uses those rates to compare the costs and benefits of the Alameda County CCA across three scenarios: (1) Renewable Compliance, (2) Accelerated RPS and(3) 80% RPS by 2021. Costs and benefits are evaluated by comparing total CCA customer rates (including PG&E exit fees) to PG&E generation rates to assess the net bill savings(costs) for customers that join the CCA. Scenario 1 (Renewable Compliance) Under Scenario 1, the Alameda County CCA meets all RPS requirements (including Senate Bill 350 requirements) and does not obtain incremental renewable power or low-carbon power in excess of these requirements. Rate Differentials Figure 14 summarizes the results of this scenario in the form of the total Alameda County CCA customer rate (vertical bars) and the comparable PG&E generation rate(line).33 Of the CCA cost elements, the greatest cost is for non-renewable generation followed by the cost for the renewable generation, which increases over the years according to the RPS standards. Another important CCA customer cost is the PCIA exit fee, which is expected to decrease in most years beginning in 2019 and to become less important over time. Under Scenario 1, the differential between PG&E generation rates and Alameda County CCA customer rates is positive in each year(i.e., CCA rates are lower than PG&E rates). As a result, Alameda County CCA customers' average generation rate (including contributions to the reserve fund)can be set at a level that is lower than PG&E's average customer generation rate in each year. The annual differential between the PG&E rate and the total CCA customer rate is expected to vary significantly over the course of this period(Figure 14). During the initial period from 2017-2023, the differential between the two rates increases (i.e., the CCA becomes more cost- competitive) due to an expected decrease in the exit fees charged to Alameda County CCA customers. Beginning in 2024,the rate differential narrows due to a decrease in PG&E generation rates stemming from the closure of the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant. After 2026, the difference between the two rates is expected to increase at a modest rate as PG&E's generation rates stabilize and exit fees decline. 33 All rates are in nominal dollars July,2016 18 MRW&Associates,LLC