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Community Choice Aggregation Feasibility Analysis Alameda County Locally-Sited and Developed Renewables As discussed above, the CCA may choose to contract with or develop renewable projects in the local area to promote economic development or other benefits. For the purpose of this study, we assume that incremental local development resulting from the CCA would be largely solar. Since the solar resource in Alameda County is not as strong as in the desert and inland areas where new utility-scale projects are typically developed (and upon which the above solar price forecast was developed), solar generation costs in Alameda County are expected to be somewhat higher than our price forecast. Based on renewable energy supply curves developed for the CPUC, we assume a 15%premium for projects located in Alameda County.25 Given the limited open space for very large solar projects in the County, we expect a portion of the local projects included in a hypothetical CCA portfolio to be smaller in size (e.g., < 3 MW). Smaller solar projects tend to have higher generation costs since they don't have the same economies of scale as the larger projects upon which our estimates of market prices are based. We have assumed a 55% generation cost premium for smaller projects,based on the same supply curve study referenced above. Future price changes and economies of scale might lower this value. In developing the hypothetical portfolios depicted in Figure 7 through Figure 9, we made conservative assumptions about how much local solar development may occur as a result of the CCA. The supply curve study performed for the CPUC estimated roughly 300 MW of solar supply in Alameda County, based on an assessment that five percent of the estimated 6,000 MW of technical potential could be developed, largely as a result of land use conflicts or slope issues that would make solar development infeasible in certain areas. We assume that over the forecast period through 2030, about 1/3 of the estimated 300 MW large solar supply potential in Alameda County is developed as a result of commitments by the CCA. A discussion of the impacts and implications of greater local renewables can be found in Chapter 7. Greenhouse Gas Costs MRW based its forecast of the prices for GHG allowances on the results of the California Air Resources Board's (ARB's) auctions for Vintage 2015 allowances.26 The Vintage 2015 Allowances were increased annually in proportion to the auction floor price increases stipulated by the ARB's cap-and-trade regulation.27 Table 3 GHG Allowances price 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 $/tonne 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.2 18.4 19.6 21.0 22.4 24.0 25.6 27.4 29.3 31.3 33.5 25 CPUC RPS calculator(RETI 2.0) 26 Auction results available at http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/capandtrade/auction/results summary.pdf. 27 California Code of Regulations,Title 17,Article 5,Section 95911. July,2016 11 MRW&Associates,LLC