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• Pleasanton and Dublin. This analysis effectively accommodates hotel rooms demand associated with expansion of the city's economic base. The results indicate that in 2018, when the Project's hotel is assumed to be added to supply for the full year, occupancy is projected to range from 79% to 81%. On the low end this rate is above the industry standard hotel occupancy rate of 75% and at the high end the rate is generally equivalent to the current baseline rates. Thus, the addition of the Project hotel is not anticipated to result in negative impacts on the existing hotel base contributing to potential hotel closure. In addition to the Project, there are Iwo cumulative hotels planned. This includes the 122-room Aloft Hotel at Grafton Plaza in Dublin, anticipated to be added to supply in 2017, a year before the Project, and the 75-room Project Clover hotel in Dublin, anticipated to be added to supply in 2018, the same year as the Project hotel. The near-term results after the addition of the new Grafton Plaza hotel in 2017 indicate that hotel occupancy is projected to remain stable at 81%, the rate noted in 2015. When the Project Clover and Johnson Drive EDZ Project hotels are further added to supply in 2018 the occupancy rate is projected to decrease, down to 73% to 75%, and recover thereafter. These projected rates are close to or above industry standard levels, and exceed levels achieved by the market as recently as 2011 and 2012. Thus, market performance is anticipated to remain close to or above industry standard levels reflective of a healthy hotel market. Therefore, the study concludes that the Project and cumulative projects may result in reduced occupancy among existing hotels, but that the existing hotels are not anticipated to be impacted to the point that hotel closure is a potential risk. CEQA URBAN DECAY DETERMINATION Definition of Urban Decay For the purpose of this analysis, urban decay is defined as, among other characteristics, visible symptoms of physical deterioration that invite vandalism, loitering, and graffiti that is caused by a downward spiral of business closures and long term vacancies. This physical deterioration' to properties or structures is so prevalent, substantial, and lasting for a significant period of time that it impairs the proper utilization of the properties and structures, and the health, safely, and welfare of the surrounding community. For this study, urban decay is only considered a risk factor if the economic impact analysis suggests the potential for prolonged market area vacancies to occur resulting from Project- and cumulative project-related sales impacts. Retail Market Characteristics Historically, Pleasanton has maintained a healthy retail market sector, while Dublin has experienced more fluctuations. As of 4'h quarter 2015 Pleasanton had an overall retail vacancy rate of 2.3%. This rate comprises a relative low in recent years, since hitting a peak of 6.0% in 4111 quarter 2012. Prior to that time period the Pleasanton vacancy rate was as low as 1.4% in 1" quarter 2007, which is an exceedingly low vacancy rate. All of these rates, however, indicate an 1 The manifestations of urban decay include such visible conditions as plywood-boarded doors and windows, parked trucks and long term unauthorized use of the properties and parking lots, graffiti and other building defacement, dumping of refuse on site, overturned dumpsters, broken parking barriers, broken glass littering the site, dead trees and shrubbery together with weeds, lack of building maintenance, homeless encampments, and unsightly and dilapidated fencing. Johnson Drive EDZ Urban Decay 7 ALH Urban & Regional Economics