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base. This share of space is estimated to total 173,321 square feet by 2018. There are 293,721 total square feet of estimated occupied development with unknown timing; however, a portion of this square footage may be developed between those years. This brings the total competitive square footage estimate to 467,042 square feet for the market area and surrounding areas, exclusive of the Project. Notably, these figures include one retail project in Dublin that City of Dublin representatives suggest may convert to an all residential project. Cumulative project analysis taking into consideration the portion of Project and cumulative project retail space anticipated to capture sales from the Project's market area, future market area demand for retail, and timing of development indicates that by the completion of Phase I, suggest there will be a projected shortfall of 111,200 square feet of market area demand to support the cumulative projects. This is a nominal amount of shortfall based upon the current size of the combined retail base in Pleasanton and Dublin, which comprises 9.2 million square feet. If this 11,200—square-foot increment of retail space became vacant as a result of the cumulative projects (possibly including the estimated Phase I Project grocery store impacts), the current retail base vacancy rate would increase by 1.2%. This retail vacancy increment is very low, and would comprise an insignificant impact on the market area's retail base. By the time Project Full Buildout occurs, there will continue to be insufficient new market area demand to absorb all the cumulative projects with known development timeframes. Similar to the Phase I timing analysis, however, this insufficient demand is estimated to be relatively low. Inclusive of the cumulative project anticipated to be unlikely to be developed as retail, this demand shortfall comprises an estimated 267,650 square feet. Excluding the unlikely development project reduces this figure to 154,800 square feet. Thus, the market area retail base vacancy rate is estimated to increase by 1 .7%to 2.9% by Full Buildout pursuant to the cumulative retail development. The degree to which these percentage increases will be significant to the market will depend upon the prevailing market conditions at the time of Full Buildout. While these conditions cannot be predicted, current conditions suggest that the projected increases in vacancy attributable to the cumulative projects at Full Buildout will not be detrimental to the commercial retail market, and that the market would continue to operate within healthy parameters. Therefore, ALH Economics concludes that the cumulative projects, inclusive of the Johnson Drive EDZ Project, are unlikely to result in negative sales impacts contributing to the potential for prolonged economic impacts and that urban decay is not likely to occur in the market area. Hotel Impact Analysis The Project has the potential for a 150- to 231-room hotel. There area minimum of 15 existing hotels in Pleasanton and Dublin with a total of 2,297 rooms. These hotels represent five classes of hotel, including economy, midscale, upper midscale, upscale, and upper upscale. All of the existing hotels appear to be in good general repair, with attractive physical conditions and no signs of urban decay or deterioration, such as litter, graffiti, weeds or rubbish. Average annual occupancy rates of the hotels vary with economic conditions, with occupancy ranging from a low of 56% in 2009 at the peak of the Great Recession to 81% in 2015. ALH Economics projected future demand for hotel rooms and assessed the Project's impact on future occupancy to identify if there could be negative impacts on occupancy sufficient to cause existing hotels to close. Demand was projected out at the combined projected employment rate for Johnson Drive EDZ Urban Decay 6 ALH Urban & Regional Economics