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Costco Case Study Findings Case study research in select California communities with Costco stores provides some insight into the potential for more granular store impacts than results from the study's quantitative analysis. This includes research in Livermore, where the Costco store opened in 1993 but where gasoline sales were added within the past 5 years, plus Hayward and Huntington Beach, which have some sales base comparability to Pleasanton and newer Costco stores opened in 2009 and 2012, respectively. The case study findings indicate that none of the cities noted negative impacts on the existing business community associated with Costco, including the small business community, downtown, gas stations, or food stores. In the case of Huntington Beach, the Costco store was instead seen as a catalyst for small business development and area economic development, with spin-off benefits noted for other, previously struggling retail districts. These case study findings indicate that other communities of a similar scale to Pleasanton did not experience negative impacts on their retail community when local Costco stores were developed. This includes no reported small business community impacts or impacts on gasoline stations. Therefore, these findings suggest the study conclusion that the Project's Phase I development could result in food store sales impacts is a conservative conclusion, not borne out by the experience in comparable cities. Secondary Impacts In addition to sales impacts throughout the Project's market area, there will be potential for more localized secondary impacts on the businesses located in the area proposed for the Johnson Drive EDZ. These include a higher volume of traffic through the area impacting employees and customers as well as existing businesses encountering a more competitive environment when seeking land or building acquisition for expansion purposes. Yet there are also potential beneficial impacts including traffic-related benefits associated with enhanced visibility of existing businesses, the proximate availability of low cost club retail merchandise and gasoline, other shopping and eating opportunities close to work, and possible long-term property value increases associated with economic development improvements throughout the area. Thus, as noted in the Huntington Beach Costco case study, Project development could serve as a catalyst for economic development, bringing shoppers to an area that was previously underutilized, and creating synergistic opportunities for business growth. Cumulative Project Sales Impacts ALH Economics identified 12 potential cumulative retail development projects in or near the market area. Cumulative projects are defined as retail developments that have the potential to generate net new retail sales that may be competitive with the Project, especially sales generated by market area consumers. Of these 12 projects, eight are anticipated to be completed by the end of 2018, concurrent with the Project's Phase I. The remaining four projects have unknown timing because they are either in very early planning stages or are phased projects that do not have estimated starting dates for the outstanding retail portion. These projects are assumed to be completed by the Project's Full Buildout timeframe. The cumulative projects will have their own unique market areas, so only a portion of the cumulative project retail space will be competitive with the Project or relate to the market area sales Johnson Drive EDZ Urban Decay 5 ALH Urban & Regional Economics