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If a store closes there are other demand opportunities available to backfill the space, thus reducing the likelihood of long-term retail vacancy. For some Project sales categories new market area demand will exceed the portion of Phase I Project sales estimated to be generated by market area households, thus no impact will result and demand available for other retailers will result. Thus, while there could be the potential for store closure, the likelihood of the space remaining vacant following Phase I development for a prolonged period of time and leading to urban decay is very low. By the time of Full Buildout of the Project, estimated to comprise 2028, more than sufficient new market area demand will be generated to absorb the Project's anticipated sales generated by market area retail consumers. There is one minor exception to this, which is the Clothing & Clothing Accessories category, with a nominal sales impact. The estimated level of impact in this category is so limited it comprises 0.0% of the market area sales base. Moreover, the findings suggest that over $100 million in additional demand for retail will remain at Full Buildout, providing support for yet other retail venues as well as any retail space that might become vacated as a result of Project impacts. Such potential vacancies, however, are not deemed likely given the negligible sales impacts projected by Full Buildout. Downtown Pleasanton Impacts Downtown Pleasanton is anticipated to experience very limited, if any, sales impacts associated with the Project. This assessment is attributable to several factors, including the nature of the impacts, Downtown Pleasanton's retail base and orientation, and historical precedents. Specifically, the Project's impacts in sales categories represented Downtown are very low and unlikely to be experienced by Downtown retailers. This is especially the case because the nature of these and other goods sold in Downtown Pleasanton is generally very different from the type of goods available at a club retail store like Costco or other generic retailers that might occupy the Project's general retail space. Further, while there may be some club retail goods overlap, the quality of goods available Downtown is typically much greater and of a broader variety than available at a club retailer. In addition, Downtown Pleasanton retailers provide services not available at a club retailer. Downtown Pleasanton also provides a unique, pedestrian-oriented shopping opportunity with a customer-friendly atmosphere, which cannot be replicated at the Project. Further, shoppers who want the type of goods available at a club retail store already have regional opportunities for this kind of shopping. Thus, there is no motivation for Downtown shoppers to change their shopping patterns. Downtown Pleasanton is quite distant from the Project site, at 4.3 miles. Shoppers who choose to shop in Downtown Pleasanton are unlikely to bundle a Downtown shopping with a Project shopping trip, further helping Downtown Pleasanton retain its existing shoppers. Finally, anecdotal information suggests that the opening of the San Francisco Premiums Outlets in Livermore, located even closer to Downtown Pleasanton than the Project site (3.9 miles versus 4.3 miles), did not result in negative economic impacts on Downtown Pleasanton retailers. This is supported by comparative sales analysis in Pleasanton spanning 2011, the year before the Outlets opened, and 2013, the year following the Outlets opening. This suggests that City of Pleasanton as a whole did not experience any retail sales repercussions associated with this significant retail addition to the region's retail base. This also supports the finding that the Project's impacts on the existing retail base may be limited, given the greater size of the San Francisco Premium Outlets relative to the Project. Johnson Drive EDZ Urban Decoy 4 ALH Urban & Regional Economics