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DISCUSSION The following discussion summarizes the key conclusions of the Student Population Projections, the status of the EPSP, issues surrounding Senate Bill (SB) 50, and questions for consideration by the City Council and Board of Trustees. These topics are linked by the potential contribution of the EPSP to population growth and school enrollment, the ability of existing PUSD facilities to accommodate EPSP-related growth, and the desire by the community for development activities to fund needed public service facilities (including schools). a. Conclusions of Student Population Projections. As noted above, the Student Population Projections (Fall 2014-Fall 2024) identify expected student enrollment changes over the next decade, and the impact of these changes on the need for new school facilities. Tables 1 and 2, below, summarize these changes. It should be emphasized that these figures do not include students generated from development expected to occur beyond 2024, including the second half of the homes that could be built in the EPSP area. Table 3 summarizes the increase in student enrollment that would result from buildout of the EPSP. The Student Population Projections report takes into account expected residential growth in PUSD over the next decade, including growth associated with development of the "Base Plan" evaluated in the Draft EPSP that would result in the development of 1,300 new residential units, along with commercial, industrial, public/institutional, and open space uses. Taking into account EPSP-related and other planned residential growth, the report concluded that— due primarily to declining birth rates — PUSD would experience a decline of 467 elementary school students by 2024, and that this decline would occur over eight of PUSD's nine elementary attendance areas. Alisal Elementary School, the only school expected to experience an increase in enrollment, would gain 284 students. Because PUSD's Facilities Master Plan establishes a desired elementary school capacity of 600- 700 students,1 no new elementary school would need to be added to the EPSP Area or anywhere else in the City before 2024. However, after 2024, with continued development of the EPSP, the report "recommends that the District still continue to plan to open a site at [the EPSP] location as it will eventually be needed." The report also identifies relatively flat growth for the middle and comprehensive high schools over the next decade. Enrollment in the middle schools is expected to decline by 123 students and high school enrollment is expected to increase by 212 students. No new middle or high schools would be required anywhere in PUSD by 2024, based on the report, assuming average enrollment numbers are acceptable. Overall, enrollment in PUSD would decline from 14,766 students to 14,388 students. ' This desired elementary school capacity is generally consistent with Program 7.2 of the Pleasanton General Plan 2005-2025, which states: Encourage school enrollment sizes that maintain neighborhood character, provide facilities for specialized programs, and promote more personalized education. The current target is 600 students per elementary school, 1,000 students at each middle school, and 2,000 students at each comprehensive high school, with a 10 percent contingency planned for each site, subject to board discretion and financial considerations. Page 2 of 4