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Pleasanton General Plan Fiscal Impact Analysis Final Report 01/16/14 In this context, planning for new growth presents a fresh opportunity to evaluate Pleasanton's fiscal performance relative to existing services and budgetary structure. Recommendations in this study are designed to support a balanced and integrated approach for future land use planning that would maintain a high quality of life for existing and future residents. Key Findings The fiscal impacts developed as part of this analysis are summarized in Table S-1 (all results are expressed in constant 2013 dollars). The key findings and implications are summarized further below. 1. Pleasanton's service population) is expected to grow by roughly 24 percent through buildout, suggesting that existing development will continue to account for the bulk of General Fund costs and revenues. Residential uses are estimated to grow by 19 percent while commercial space is expected to increase by 35 percent in the City. Projections for new growth are based on the recently adopted General Plan and Housing Element and are adjusted to reflect the most likely growth outcome below the maximum allowed development capacity. The East Pleasanton Specific Plan, the planning work for which is c:urrently in progress, is excluded from the forecast. Residential composition of future residential growth is projected to shift towards higher density uses and away from the City's existing lower density pattern. Roughly two-thirds (69%) of new residential growth is expected to be in multifamily compared to the existing share of 26 percent. 2. New growth is likely to have a positive fiscal impact on the City's General Fund at buildout. This analysis estimates that new growth will result in a benefit on the City with new annual revenue of$15.1 million exceeds annual expenditures of$11.1 million (see Table S-i). These estimates result in an annual net fiscal surplus of $4.0 million to the City. Property tax will comprise the largest revenue to the City, while public safety and parks will result in the most significant costs from new growth. 3. Fiscal impacts of residential uses will vary depending on product orientation and density. For-sale development provides fiscal advantages for the City, while multifamily rentals would likely result in fiscal shortfalls. Future impacts of residential growth will depend on market orientation of higher density product and its ability to attract higher income households, which would improve revenues to the City. To the extent that multifamily uses provide an entry-level product for households otherwise priced out of Pleasanton, their fiscal impacts are likely to be less favorable. On the other hand, these potentially negative impacts could be mitigated if new apartments provide housing opportunities that allow existing empty nesters to remain in Pleasanton as they age and downsize. This is especially true if they sell their existing single-family homes, which likely have depressed assessed values due to Proposition 13, to more affluent families. 1 Estimated by adding total residential population and 68% of total employment. It represents a measure of public service demand in which employees are given a share of resident weight because of more limited service requirements. See Table A-4 for additional detail. Economic&Planning Systems, Inc. 2 P:\121000\121062Pleasanton\Report\121062Report_FINAL.doc