05B - Laserfiche WebLink

Projected Enrollments from 2007 to 2017 Pleasanton Unified School District For those readers looking for additional information on these net adjustments, the Appendix A2 and A3 tables provide some by-grade figures for each school. This includes both the actual amounts in October 2007 and what the enrollments could be next fall if the district allowed the current levels of intra- and inter-district attendance to continue at each school.t0 These are simply theoretical numbers that have been provided to help the district in determining what changes to those levels may be warranted. The actual levels that will be permitted in 2008-09 will, of course, be driven by capacity constraints, especially for class size reduction, and other district decisions, such as for staffing. Underlying Factors to the Projections: Trends in Existing Housins~ There are three key components underlying the forecast: (1) student population trends between the grades ("advancement rates") in existing housing, (2) the likely evolution of the pending kindergarten amounts in each neighborhood and (3) students from new dwellings. The subsections below (with italicized headers) discuss our trend findings within the existing homes. The likely enrollment impacts of new residences are explained later in the main (bold header) section that starts on page 17. Our recent reports had both district-wide and by-housing-category tables for the "advancement rates" from "existing housing", but we have shifted the latter table (previously Table 4) to Appendix 61 in this document. The new Table 4 (discussed later) instead covers the population changes in the lowest grades in particular. That is followed by a new Table 5 that shows, for the first time in our reports, how the local birth counts have been evolving. Both of these tables deal with the question of whether this year's higher kindergarten total is likely to continue, which is probably the most significant short-term and mid-range issue for the district enrollment. Recent Resident Populations and Advancement Rates from Existing Housing in Aggregate Table 3, on page 9, provides a summary of the recent district-wide changes from "existing housing" (i.e., built before the start of the trend analysis period, which is prior to October 2003 in this study). There are two types of data presented in this table: student totals by grade and "advancement rates" entering each grade. The latter are calcu-ations of the net change in the number of students in each grade as they "graduate" into the next grade in the following school year. These figures are most applicable to an accurate forecast when they are determined specifically for students from existing housing. For example, if there had been a total of 100 students in kindergarten last year and 105 in first grade this year from the same group of homes, that would be a 5% (1.05) net advancement rate gain. Such rates usually are averaged over the last several years within each single-grade advancement to avoid giving too much influence to nuances that may have occurred in any one year. For this study, we have determined and evaluated several recent averages, including over four years (2003-2007), as are shown in the bottom row of Table 3, as well as for three years (2004-2007) and weighted over four years (2003-2007, with the last year of change weighted by 150%), which are provided in Appendix B2. These rates are then evaluated for their likelihood to continue. The following discussion focuses on the rates shown in Table 3. Many of these comments are repeated from our last report to make a point of where the findings are virtually unchanged. 10 The net inter- and intra-district adjustments have been advanced by one grade for next fall's estimates at each school, with minute revisions where necessary to correlate with the aggregate projections in each grade. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 8