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Projected Enrollments from 2007 to 2017 Pleasanton Unified School District students (in K-5) in 2008 and 114 students over the next four years. The result would be an average of 689 resident students for each of those schools.a The remaining elementary regions can be summarized as having only limited projected changes in the northwest and north central parts of the district (i.e., for Lydiksen, Donlon and Walnut Grove), but more significantly in the northeast and east central sections (i.e., for Fairlands, Mohr and Alisal). The former group has some yearly fluctuations but none of those areas is projected (through 2011) to have net resident shifts by more than 22 from the current amounts. Fairlands, by contrast, is slated to lose 26 resident students in the next year alone and could be down by 40 in 2011. Since that region has the largest over-planned-capacity figure (-268), however, such a resident reduction may be beneficial. Also projected for a declining population is the Mohr region. That could be off by 55 students to 2011. The adjacent Alisal area, by contrast, could add 60 students during those four years, but the resultant 619 resident students would only slightly exceed the planning capacity for 600. Short-Term Projections in the Secondary School Attendance Areas The projected short-term shifts in the secondary regions are generally in-sync at the middle school level while being divergent between the two main high schools, but these are all relatively modest changes. Next year's resident middle school totals are nearly stable in ranging from a nominal gain of eight students (for Pleasanton Middle) to a loss of 13 (for Harvest Park). The Pleasanton and Harvest Park regions also have only modest declines of 29 and 20 resident students, respectively, to 2011. The Hart region is forecast for the greatest loss during that time, with a decline by 69, but that area also has the largest current resident total, so the result could be more comparable totals between the three regions. We should note that the current net adjustment amounts for Hart (-71) and Harvest Park (+97) are more than these projected resident changes. Intra-district decisions thus could be the larger factor in any enrollment shifts at this grade level. The high school regions, as for the middle schools, were accurately projected for this year (at well within 1 % for most and 2% for all of the six secondary regions shown in Table 2) and did not have the localized shifts of the elementaries, so the forecast is essentially unchanged from a year ago. What did shift for the high school grades, however, is that previously the peak was still to come, whereas it now has been reached.9 The result is that the four-year forecast differences have fewer students than before for both Amador Valley and Foothill. The resident total for the former region now fluctuates within 35 of the current amount (rather than growing by 46) over the next four years. The Foothill region, which had the greatest resident swing of any attendance area due to (the accurately projected) growth in the last year, again has a projected decline in 2008. That decline by 43, however, is now strictly negative rather than being a net offset (of the previous year's gains). s The projected resident totals have changed notably in a few attendance areas, including for Valley View among these three regions, since our last report. The main reasons are (1) shifts in expected new housing amounts and locations, (2) the latest birth data and (3) the current resident counts, especially the rise in kindergarten. Our forecast for the recently expanded Lydiksen area, for example, was correct for this year (with 663 actual resident students versus 664 projected), but we are no longer expecting as much pending growth. Declining births and delayed new housing projects are the principal causes of that difference. Our forecast in some of the other elementary regions, by contrast, was low due to the larger-than-expected current kindergarten and that has added to their short-term projections as well. Of particular note is the change for Walnut Grove, with 32 more resident students than expected and modest projected further growth by 22 students to 2011, rather than the previous expectation of a small reduction. 9 The high school option areas, within which students can choose to attend either Amador Valley or Foothill High without needing a formal intra-district transfer, reached an interim peak in 2006 and have a lower current total. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 7