05B - Laserfiche WebLink

Projected Enrollments from 2007 to 2017 Pleasanton Unified School District Projected Resident Student Populations by Existing Attendance Areas This forecast is again based on an analysis of where the students live (the resident population') rather than the schools they happen to attend (the attending enrollment). Resident populations differ from enrollments because of (1) intra-district enrollment (i.e., between Pleasanton schools) and (2) inter- district enrollment (i.e., from stated student addresses that are outside the district). By coding all of the student addresses from the current and recent school years to planning areas that represent various housing types and locations, we have been able to identify and evaluate how the student population is evolving in each situation. We flip back-and-forth between these "resident" and "enrollment" amounts in the text below, and it is important to remember the distinction between these two types. Understanding the Data in Table 2 Table 2 (on page 6) contains two sets of data for each school. The figures on the left (under "The Enrollment part of Table 2'~ show the difference between the current enrollment and the relevant resident student population for each school. Lydiksen, for instance, had 668 enrolled students on October 3, 2007, which was five more than the resident population (in grades K-5) of 663 students. This difference is identified by the "5" in the column titled "Net Adjustment from Resident Students". The second set of data, on the right side of the table (under "The Resident Student Population part of Table 2'), covers the planned elementary school capacities and the current and projected pending resident amounts. Planned maximum capacities can differ from operating capacities because the former are what a district has determined to be the optimal maximum for each site, while the latter can be in response to current enrollment needs. The district has adopted the following capacity goals for the elementaries: maximums of 750 at Donlon and 698 for Walnut Grove and 600 for the remaining schools, with the latter schools having classrooms for special uses that could increase the planning capacities to 660 if necessary. These planning maximums are compared, in the middle columns of the table, to the current resident totals in each elementary attendance area. The Lydiksen region, for example, has 63 more resident, district-enrolled students in grades K-5 than the planning maximum for 600 at that school. This is shown as "-63" in the "Current Surplus" column of the table. None of these "Current Surplus" amounts has changed significantly since the last study. The resident amounts provided for 2008 through 2011 are not projected enrollments. They do indicate, however, the extent to which the current attendance areas might continue to be suitable for the next four years without any adjustments. The resident K-5 population in the Mohr attendance area, as an example, declines from 595 this year to 540 in 2011, which is a 55-student decrease. This amount of reduction is shown in the bold "-55" in the rightmost column. That loss would create a surplus (planned) capacity for 60 students at Mohr while other schools could be operating at above their desired capacities. Short-Term Projections and Potential Capacity Issues in the Elementary School Attendance Areas The main planning capacity issues, based on the short-term projections, appear to be in the southern part of the district. While Vintage Hills has had available capacity to take students from both Valley View and, to a lesser extent, Hearst in the past, the projected growth in all three of those regions will further exceed their combined planned maximums. Those three regions are projected to add a total of 42 "Resident" throughout this report means physical resident, not legal resident. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 5