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Projected Enrollments from 2007 to 2017 Pleasanton Unified hoof District We have again updated the samples of recently built housing used in our SGR calculations. The SFD and Duet samples cover virtually all developments of those types that were completed since 2000. This includes the current total of homes that have been occupied in "Ruby Hill" and "Pheasant Ridge" even though those developments were not fully built-out as of September 2007." Attached housing (excluding duets), however, would have covered too few locations to be a suitable sample using a 2000 cutoff date. That sample therefore includes the large ATT developments built in the late 1990s. These updated SGR samples, as in our last study, have insufficient difference by general square footage of detached homes, as well as between SFD and Duet units, to justify separate identification. For forecast purposes, the merged SFD and Duet sample of 870 units is considered the appropriate SGR calculation to apply to similar future dwellings. There are 894 district-enrolled students in those homes, fora 1.03 SGR (i.e. or just over one student per residence). The sample of 1,089 (non-duet) attached units provides 450 students, fora 0.41 SGR (see Table 6 on the top half of page 20). Both of these SGRs are slightly higher than our calculations in the last study. These are also among the highest SGRs that we have ever identified in sufficiently large samples of those respective dwelling types (other than from "below market rate" developments for low- and moderate-income residents). Projected New Housin_q Units The annual rate of new home occupations is still declining in the district. After averaging close to 300 residences annually during the late 1990s, the yearly total dropped to around 200 units in the first half of this decade and was even lower in the last 24 months. The limited availability of sites approved for new development is the main reason for this slowdown, but market conditions also contributed. Attached housing is particularly susceptible to these economic shifts. With these economic and zoning (site availability) issues factored in, the new housing projections have three basic time periods: (1) the already approved developments for the next two years, (2) the likely additional construction in two-to-four years and (3) the long-range possibilities. The former group includes a dozen homes at "Kolb Ranch" in the northwest corner of the district; the last five SFD homes at "Pheasant Ridge" west of I-680; 10 residences in the "Happy Valley" vicinity; completion of the "Ironwood" development between Busch Road and Mohr Avenue (the final 22 units, although a few of the rural lots may take longer); 45 ATT units on Birch Creek Drive (near Valley View Elementary), approximately 39 homes in the "Vineyard Corridor" and 31 estate homes now under-construction in "Ruby Hill". These and some small "infill" developments elsewhere still total to only 120 projected units in the next year (i.e. from Oct. 1, 2007, to Oct. 1, 2008; see Table 7 on the lower half of page 20) and just another 95 in the following year. Probable construction in two-to-four years includes around 350 attached units by Stoneridge Mall, roughly 70 SFD dwellings on a politically sensitive site south of Foothill High, 28 detached residences near Cameron Avenue, 20 homes north of the fairgrounds and an estimate of another 20 on several sites in Happy Valley, plus small additional amounts in the "Vineyard Corridor" and "Ruby Hill". If all of these happen, then the rate could exceed about 220 units annually in three-to-four years. The numbers after 2011, however, have a wide possible range. The biggest issue, as we have stated in past reports, is in and near the Hacienda Business Park at the north edge of the district. The expected additional housing units in that area have swung significantly back-and-forth in recent years. "The SFD and Duet sample excludes the "Ironwood" developments because there were too many homes remaining to be occupied (as of October 1, 2007) to determine an accurate SGR. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 19