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Projected Enrollments from 2007 to 2017 Pleasanton Unified School District Understandina the Data in Table 5 Table 5 provides a comparison between (1) the births in the two zip codes in the district and (2) the corresponding (five years later) PUSD-enrolled kindergarten populations from the same areas. In 1999, for instance, there were 392 births to women with stated home addresses in the 94588 zip code region (i.e., the northern and western parts of the district). The resident kindergarten total in October 2004 from that area was 416 students. That is 106% of the number of births from five years earlier, as is shown in the top row of Table 5. To try to limit the comparison to as recent a period as possible while also having a sufficient number of years to "average out" any single-year nuances, we usually calculate an average from the three most recent correlative years. The number of new homes moved into in the 94566 area in the year 2000, however, led us to limit the calculated average to just the two most recent correlative years (i.e., births in 2001 and 2002 compared to the resident district-enrolled kindergarten totals in October of 2006 and 2007, respectively). That limitation, however, still created unusually high (over 100%) ratios, especially in the 94566 region. We therefore have focused both our findings and the following discussion on the "boxed" birth count differences (or lack thereof) that are shown in the table. Key Findings from the Data in Table 5 These birth counts not only support our expectation of little further growth in kindergarten, they even suggest that lower amounts may occur in some pending years. All of the annual birth totals relevant to the next four kindergartens in the 94588 area, for example, are below the counts corresponding to the latest kindergarten classes (i.e., in the 300s for the pending kindergartens versus the 400s for the 2005 through 2007 kindergartens). Although the birth counts do not show a similar dip in the 94566 (southern and southeastern) part of the district, with birth totals instead having risen nominally, that region also had more new housing added during the intervening years. This suggests that any recent gains from new dwellings were nearly offset in the birth totals by declines from the existing housing. With fewer residences being added in the near future, a continuation of that reduction from existing units could be more than offsetting. This is already evident in the drop in births in the last year (2006). Underlying Factors: Students Projected from Future New Housing New housing contributes to enrollment through a combination of the number of units, by category, and the student generation rates (SGRs) generated per unit within each of those classifications. These two aspects are discussed in the following subsections. We should note that many of these findings and expectations are virtually the same as a year ago and we have repeated, sometimes verbatim, the related text accordingly. The only notable revisions are slightly higher SGRs and a significant reduction in the forecast for the Hacienda Business Park. Average Student Generation Rates from Recently Built Residences Student generation rates (SGRs) are the average rates at which dwelling units "yield" students, in this case for enrollment in the Pleasanton Unified School District. SGRs are calculated by identifying the number of students by grade in a suitable sample of residential units. The rates determined from recently built housing are often considered the best estimation of what similar future homes will generate, at least in the first few years of occupation. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 17