05B - Laserfiche WebLink

Projected Enrollments from 2007 to 2017 Pleasanton Unified School District These collective groups have different expected evolutions in K-2, but the aggregate indication is for either stable or slowly declining kindergartens in all of the built-before-2003 housing.13 The non-duet ATT units, while adding students overall as the larger totals now in K-2 graduate into the other grades, probably will not have much further K-2 growth. These units also provide only 14% of the current enrollment, so an additional 1 % to 3% rise in K-2 would be less of a factor than comparable percentage reductions in some of the other groups. The "Modest & Moderate SFD", "Traditional Middle Income SFD", "Modern SFD" and "Duet" categories, which together provide 33% of the current total, should have some ongoing growth in K-2, but that may be insufficient to offset the declines from the more expensive SFD homes. The latter ("Traditional Upper Middle Income" through "Highest Income") contribute 38% of the current enrollment, which is the largest share among these collective groups. There are two remaining categories of real consequence to the district: new housing and inter-district enrollment, each of which contributed to the recent enrollment growth (see final page of Table 4). The planning areas with new residences provided 612 additional students in the last three years. While the largest gain was in the high school grades (208), there was significant growth in the other grades as well (including by 132 students in K-2).14 New housing, however, as you will read later in this report, will not be as significant of an enrollment contributor in the next few years. The final key category deals with incoming inter-district students. As was noted earlier (see bottom of page 1), shifts in that population have little to do with demographic trends; they are instead principally the result of decisions made by the district each year, such as to fill available classroom space in particular grades at a couple of schools. Your district added 35 high school students and 50 students total in this category in just the last three years (and another 24, for 74 total, since 2003). Could you maintain or increase the kindergarten enrollment in future years by adding more inter-district students? The answer is probably yes, considering how desirable your schools are perceived to be. More inter- district students were allowed in both kindergarten and first grade this year than at any other time in the last decade.15 This is despite the already significant within-district totals now in those grades. Comparison of Local Birth Counts to Corresponding Kindergarten Populations We excluded birth data from our previous Pleasanton USD studies because (1) the figures from the Alameda County health department, while being at the more localized census tract level, also had questionable variations, and (2) the zip code counts assembled by the State cover much larger areas that included too much new housing during the intervening years to be useful. The latter issue, however, has become less significant since 2000. There has been a slowdown in new construction since the late 1990s, with well below 200 units annually rather than the earlier pace of over 300 per year. That shift is now far enough into the past to justify a review of the births-to-kindergarten correlation by Pleasanton zip codes.16 This comparison is provided in the new Table 5 on page 18. 13 These stable or slowly declining kindergarten amounts, however, are in relation to the current higher-than- projected total, which still results in more future kindergartners than previously forecast. 14 The totals shown for the highest grade group are in 9-12, rather than 9-11, on the final page of Table 4. The reason is that these residual subjects are less suitable for the three-grades-over-three-years comparison. 15 These highest kindergarten and first grade inter-district amounts are from October 1996 to 2007 student files. The children of district staff may be a factor in these rising inter-district figures. 's We have used many birth data sources over the years and have found that these zip code counts have the best track record in terms of the correlation between births and corresponding (five years later) kindergartens. Enrol/ment Projection Consultants Page 16