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San Francisco Bay Area Draft Regional Housing Needs .-111ocation, 4'~' Revision • Household growth (45%) • Existing employment (22.5%) • Employment growth (22.5%) • Household growth near existing transit (5%) • Employment growth near existing transit (5%) Household growth, existing employment, and employment growth are estimated in ABAG's regional household and employment forecasts, Projections. A. Household Growth, 45 percent Each local jurisdiction should plan for housing according to regionally projected household growth within its boundaries during the RHNA planning period (2007 - 2014). Household growth should be weighted 45 percent in the allocation. The use of housing as a RHNA factor represents consistency with local, regional, and state policies regarding where housing growth will and should occur in the region. Where and how much housing growth will occur in the region is estimated by ABAG's forecasting model, as documented in Projections. Specifically, household growth is based on: 1) local land use policies and plans; 2) demographic and economic trends, such as migration, birth and death rates, housing prices, and travel costs; and 3) regional growth policies. Household growth in ABAG's Projections is most influenced by local land use plans and policies, including planned and protected agricultural lands, open space and parks, city- centered growth policies, urban growth boundaries, and any physical or geological constraints. Regional policies incorporated into Projections since 2002, are assumed to go into effect by 2010, and therefore have some effect on regional housing growth estimates in the 2007-2014 RHNA period. Regional policies assume that there will be increased housing growth in existing urbanized areas, near transit stations and along major public transportation corridors. These regional policies are consistent with state housing policies to promote infill development, environmental and agricultural protection and efficient development patterns. The impacts of regional policy assumptions in Projections are: a) potential environmental and agricultural resource protection by directing growth away from existing open and agricultural lands; b) the encouragement of efficient development patterns through increased infill development and higher densities in existing communities; and c) the potential for increased transportation choices, e.g., walking and public transit, through more housing development near transit and jobs. The household estimates in Projections account for ali people living in housing units, including students. Thus, the portion of the student population that occupies part of a local jurisdiction's housing stock is counted as such and as a source of future household formation. The portion of the student population that occupies "group quarters," such as college dormitories, are not included in household population counts. This is consistent with state policy regarding RHNA that excludes "group quarters" from being counted as housing units. Household growth is used as a factor, as opposed to existing units or total units, to ensure that additional housing is not planned where there are existing concentrations of homes in the region, but rather where growth is anticipated to occur. In this way household growth as a _~ugust 2007, Page 7