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San Francisco Bay :area Draft Regional Housing Needs :allocation, 4'~' Revision 2. If the subregion fails before ABAG has made any allocation, ABAG combines the subregional share with the rest of the regional need and allocates the total regional need to the entire region using ABAG's RHNA methodology. 3. If the subregion fails after ABAG has made its initial allocation, ABAG separately allocates the subregional share among only the members of the subregion. ABAG uses its RHNA methodology to do so. This approach minimizes the extent of any reallocations that could occur as a result of subregional failure and preserves the integrity of the respective efforts of ABAG and C/CAG. Keeping San Mateo separated once ABAG has completed its initial allocation also provides the most certainty to all jurisdictions about what their allocation will be. VI. Regional Projections Every two years, ABAG produces along-run regional forecast called Projections. The Projections forecast provides specific information for population, households, employment and other related variables. In Projections 2007, values are reported for year 2000, and then for each five year increment to 2035. Several related models are used to perform the forecast. The economic model balances demand for the production of goods and services with the supply of productive capacity. The demographic model uses birth rates, death rates and migration data to forecast future population using a cohort-survival model. A great deal of data is required by the models, including information on economic relationships and trends, population-related information like births, deaths and migration, as well as land use and land use policy data. Since Projections 2003, ABAG has assumed the "Network of Neighborhoods" land use pattern, as developed through the Smart Growth Strategy/Regional Livability Footprint Project. This pattern expects higher levels of housing production. It also assumes that an increasing proportion of regional growth occurs near transit and in existing urban areas. In the Projections 2007 forecast, additional housing production and a shift in the pattern of development primarily occurs in the later part of the forecast. Earlier in the forecast, population growth is generally consistent with the California Department of Finance (DOF) forecast. The distribution of growth is generally consistent with local general plans. ABAG has continually collected information on local land use as part of its modeling efforts. The forecast is produced for nearly 1400 census tracts in the region and shows the existing land use and the capacity of each tract to support additional population or economic activities. Because the forecast is based on local land use information, forecasted growth occurs in locations that are consistent with local plans. However, even with 1400 census tracts, only so much detailed information can be included. We may know that moderate growth can occur in an area without specifically understanding that a portion of that area is a nature preserve. We may know that growth should not occur in an area, but it may not be clear whether it is due to a physical limitation, or a general plan policy. lugust 2UU7, Page ] 5