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Fiscal Analysis for the Staples Ranch Development Project October 25, 2007 Page 6 commercial, and recreational uses, it is expected that multiple equations will be needed, particu- larly to describe expected changes in costs. We will prepare initial estimates of revenues from property tax and sales tax (based on information to be provided by the project sponsor) that would be generated by the proposed project. Task 3: Meet with City Staff to Discuss Tentative Revenue and Cost Equations We will meet with the Finance Director (or other Finance Department staff, as appropriate) and staff of other City departments to confirm our tentative revenue and cost equations. Staff of other departments may include, at a minimum, the Police Department, Fire Department, Parks and Community Services, and Public Works. We will look to the City's project manager to identify other critical staff meetings. In some cases, it may become apparent that simple equations, such as are typically used for fiscal analyses, will not be appropriate for this project. We are particularly concerned about the estimated of service costs: typically, service demands and costs are considered on a "per capita" basis. If this approach is applied to the proposed project, no costs would be anticipated for the auto mall or the commercial project. (Costs of park maintenance are typically estimated based on park acreage and recreation costs based on population; we would confirm these assumptions with City staff.) In this light, we will discuss likely impacts of the project and service responses with City staff to arrive at reasonable conclusions about changes in service demands and resulting changes in costs. In discussions with the Police and Fire departments, we will use the public service information reported in the EIR as a starting point. We will also request that, if possible, both departments pro- vide information about calls for service to existing auto dealerships, commercial developments (similar to the development expected at Staples Ranch), and senior housing projects so that we can verify or refine the EIR estimates of service demands and requirements that will affect City costs. Task 4: Estimate Changes in Auto Sales Associated with the New Location/Configuration of the Auto Mall The auto dealers that would relocate to Staples Ranch from their existing sites in Pleasanton anticipate a significant increase in sales at the new site - to as much as double the current sales level -resulting from both expanded inventory and better freeway access/parking arrangements. Such an increase in sales would have a correspondingly significant beneficial impact on the City's fiscal condition, should the site be annexed and the development proceed as proposed. M&A will attempt to evaluate this expectation of increased sales by identifying and contacting other auto dealers who have relocated and expanded in the recent past. In this informal survey, we will ask the dealers about the magnitude of change in sales volume (if any) since their relocation, and, assuming that a change has been observed, whether that change is related to visibility, access, parking availability, inventory, size of dealership, general economic conditions, population growth in the market area, or other factors.