AGENDA REPORT - Laserfiche WebLink

residents and employees will be more likely to use public transit or walk to work ("mode split") resulting in a larger proportion of trips being made by a means other than the single occupancy vehicle. As part of its Specific Plan work, the Hacienda Owners Association hired traffic consultants Fehr & Peers to calculate the appropriate reduction in traffic generation for mixed use development close to the BART station. Their estimate which was based on research and studies of similar development, takes into consideration both mode split and internal capture, and an additional reduction factor related to urban design (i.e. creating more walkable streets). They estimated that trips for residential development within 1 mile of BART could be reduced by up to 38.5 percent, and that trips generated from office uses for office development within one-half mile of BART could be reduced 14.5 percent. These trip reductions have been applied in the Transit Oriented (Reduced) scenario and the results are presented for comparison purposes. Staff believes that the ITE trip rates (which are more conservative) and the reduced trip rate scenarios development by Fehr & Peers represent the high and low end of a range of potential trip generation rates. TRAFFIC MODEL VALIDATION An important principle of traffic model construction is the theory that a model that can replicate current traffic conditions will be able to forecast future traffic conditions. As a result, if a model can accurately replicate the existing conditions, with the correct inputs for future development and future road networks, it should accurately predict future conditions. As indicated in Attachment 2 (page 11), City of Pleasanton Travel Demand Forecasting and Micro-Simulation Models, adequate measures have been taken to calibrate and validate the traffic model. The Pleasanton traffic model is based on multiple assumptions including forecasts of future development both for Pleasanton and surrounding communities, future roadway network improvements, and assumptions about the proportion of trips in cars as compared to transit, walking or biking. Significant unanticipated changes in social or economic conditions may invalidate these assumptions and the results of the model. Notwithstanding the above, the traffic model is still the most accurate tool available for predicting future traffic conditions. DISCUSSION Modeling Results: Six scenarios were modeled, namely: A. Consensus Preferred Land Use Plan without Stone ridge Drive extension B. Consensus Preferred Land Use Plan with Stoneridge Drive extension C. Dispersed Growth Land Use Plan without Stoneridge Drive extension D. Dispersed Growth Land Use Plan with Stoneridge Drive extension E. Concentrated Residential/TOO Land Use Plan without Stoneridge Drive extension Page 3 of 10