SR 06:090A - Laserfiche WebLink

ProiectEd Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 PJeasanton Unified School District The gap between the resident populations at the high schools widens in the projections, especially with a significant jump (by 138) in the Amador Valley population in 2006, but the net adjustments may again be the bigger factor. Amador Valley currently has a net reduction by 188 and Foothill has a net increase of 112 compared to the resident totals.' Those adjustments reduce the differences from greater than 400 resident students to only 128 in actual attendance. Keeping the enrollments relatively balanced between these two schools, however, will require either increasing those adjustment amounts and/or revising the attendance boundaries, because the resident gap will be around 500 students from 2006 to 2009. For those readers looking for additional information on these net adjustments, the Appendix A2 and A3 tables provide some by-grade figures for each school. This includes both the actual amounts in October 2005 and what the enrollments could be next fall if the district allowed the current levels of intra- and Inter-district attendance to continue at each schoolS These are simply theoretical numbers that have been provided to help the district in determining what changes to those levels may be warranted. The actual levels that will be permitted in 2006-07 will, of course, be driven by capacity constraints, especially for class size reduction, and other district decisions, such as for staffing. Underlvlna Factors to the Proiectlons: Trends In Existlna Houslna There are three key components underlying the projections: (1) student population trends between the grades in existing housing, (2) the likeiy evolution of the pending kindergarten amounts in each neighborhood and (3) students from new dwellings. The subsections below (with italicized headers) discuss our trend findings within the existing homes. The likely enrollment impacts of new residences are explained later in the main (bold header) section that starts on page 12. Recent Grade-to-Grade Advancement (Cohort Surviva/J Rates in Existina Housina As was noted in our past reports, grade-to-grade advancement rates are calculations of the net change in the number of students in each grade as they "graduate" into the next grade in the next school year. These rates are most appiicable to an accurate forecast when they are determined specifically for students from existing housing. For example, if there had been a total of 100 students in kindergarten last year and 105 students in first grade this year from the same group of homes, that would be a 5% (1.05) net advancement rate gain. Usually such rates are averaged over the last several years within each single-grade advancement to avoid giving too much influence to nuances that may have occurred in anyone year. For this study, we have determined the weighted average rates over the last five years from all "existing" (i.e. built before fall 2000) neighborhoods, both district-wide (see bottom row of Table 3 on page 8) and by various housing type and price-range categories (as is shown in Appendix B). The recent advancement rates from all established district residences have significant shifts for three grades In particular: first, ninth and twelfth. The 1.07 (a 7% rise) entering first grade is presumably due , These two amounts do not add up to zero because they include both losses to Village School and gains from incoming inter-district attendance. Outgoing Inter-district attendance and Horizon students, however, are excluded from these amounts. e The net inter~ and intra-district adjustments have been advanced by one grade for next fall's estimates at each school, with minute revisions where necessary to correlate with the aggregate projections In each grade. Enrollment Pro/ection Consultants Pap,:- - 1