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proiected Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 Pleasanton Unified School District These are the same categories and were calculated a year ago, but the samples used have been expanded to include the most recently completed homes in "Ruby Hill". Due to ongoing construction in the "Pheasant Ridge" and "Carlton Oaks" developments that are west of 1-680 and south of Bernal, along with "Sycamore Heights" at the east end of Sycamore Creek Way, it is not possible at this time to determine accurate SGRs for these neighborhoods. When completed, those SGRs will be included in future updates. All of these new-home SGRs have increased in the last year. As is shown in Table 5 on the top half of page 14, the 872 surveyed small-lot SFD residences currently provide 713 students, for an overall SGR of 0.82 (i.e. the equivalent of 82 students in every 100 homes, or just over four students in every five). That is a jump by 50 students from a year ago in the same homes. This is a classic example of an SGR increasing over the first several years of occupation. The degree by which that rise occurs varies greatly between the samples from both various districts and different similar tracts within a district, but some growth is a common occurrence. Factoring this subsequent growth into the projections is always tricky. We do not want to overstate the number of students that will arrive in the first year, but we equally need to make sure that the true impact over the first few years is included. The SGR from new medium- and large-lot detached residences is also higher, but not to the extent as on the smaller parcels. There are now 1,107 students coming from the 1,079 sampled dwellings in this category, or more than one student per residence (a 1.03 SGR). Since these are mainly much bigger homes than those in the small-lot category, with more bedrooms and bathrooms, it is not surprising that they tend to generate more students. The enrollment distribution, however, is already steeply slanted toward the secondary grades, which indicates older families on average and a probable decline in the SGR within ten years after the homes have been occupied. Both of these SFD SGRs are much higher than the rates that we have calculated in most of our client districts. The sampled new attached housing units have again been broken into the categories of duets and all other attached. The recently built duet units (i.e. individually owned residences in two-unit structures that look like modern SFD homes) currently have a 0.51 SGR, or more than one student in every two units. That is a 10% rise from the 0.46 rate that was determined two years ago. The sample for all other new A TT comes from three apartment complexes with a total of 1,115 units. These are averaging two students in every five apartments (i.e. a 0.40 SGR). The same units had a 0.34 SGR two years ago and 0.37 last year. That is a notable 18% increase in 24 months. It Is also among the highest SGRs that we have ever identified in a large sample of modern, mostly market-rate (i.e. not subsidized) apartments. The current grade distributions of the students in both these attached samples suggest that the SGRs should be relatively stable for several years. Proiected New Housina Units Although another approximately 3,200 units could be added to reach the city's 29,000 cap, only about 2,200 are likely on Identifiable locations during the next decade." Several sites that were described by City Planning in prior years as being conceivable for residential uses are now considered off the table (other than for seniors only). As we also stated a year ago, this includes (1) redevelopment on the south side of Busch Road and (2) on the vacant acreage at the southwest corner of the 1-580 and EI Charro interchange. The downtown area is also no longer expected to receive much more housing. There has been discussion, in the past, ,of allowing up to 1,600 attached units in the Hacienda Business Park, but the more likely total is much lower, perhaps in the range of 800 to 1,000 units. 13 Our total count of remaining units is higher than the City's because we are including units that have already been issued building permits but are not yet occupied. Enrollment Proiection Consultants Pa~1: