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Proiected Enrollments from 2IJ05 to 2015 PlRasanton Unified School District Our principal findings within these existing housing categories are: (1) Among SFD residences, there were enrollment losses in most price ranges in recent years, with an aggregate impact of a reduction by 145 students since 2000. Only the detached homes that generally were built in the 1990s ("modern") provided an increase. The percentage in the elementary grades is significantly lower In all five categories. This declining trend is occurring in the majority of the district's neighborhoods. We had similar findings from these categories in our last study, and the projections from those homes for this year were extremely accurate. (2) The student population has increased in all price ranges of A TT dwellings, but the K-5 percentage dropped significantly in the last year in the category representing the majority of these students. That drop is not as clear of a trend as in SFD homes, and warrants close observation in the future. Of particular note are the major overall ATT gains in the last year. The "Modest Apartments, Townhouses & Condos" added 58 students while the more expensive versions of those same dwelling types added 22. There are now more students In these existing units than at any time in the last five years. These residences, however, often have more year-to-year population fluctuations than SFD homes. Both of these price groupings had different adjustments in recent years (see boxes in the table), including losses of 33 last year in the modest group and by 23 the year before in the more expensive units. We therefore do not consider the gains in 2005 to be an ongoing trend. These units provide less than one-sixth of the students that are coming from existing dwellings and under one-seventh of the district total, so any trend shifts are far less consequential than those in the SFD homes. In aggregate, it is evident that the total enrollment would be declining next year and thereafter if not for new housing. Underlvina Factors: Students Proiected from Future New Houslna New housing contributes to enrollment through a combination of the number of units, by category, and the student generation rates (SGRs) generated per unit within each of those classifications. These two aspects are discussed in the following subsections. Averaae Student Generation Rates from Recentlv Built Residences Student generation rates (SGRs) are the average rates at which dwelling units "yield" students, in this case for enrollment in the Pleasanton Unified School District. SGRs are calculated by identifying the number of students by grade in a suitable sample of residential units. The rates determined from recently built housing are often considered the best estimation of what similar future homes will generate, at least in the first few years of occupation. Several SGR types are often warranted. We have identified four statistically meaningful SGRs from the recently built residences in the district: (1) small-lot SFD, (2) medium- and large-lot SFD, (3) duets and (4) all other attached housing units." 12 The City of Pleasanton defines small lots as under 5,000 square feet, medium lots as 5,000-15,000 square feet, and large iots as over 15,000 square feet. Our analyses of the populations in the various developments has determined, however, that new homes on parcels in the roughly 5,000-6,000 square foot range had SGRs closer to the small-lot category than the medium-Iof category. We therefore have included those homes in the small-Iof classification for projection and SGR purposes. We also determined that the difference in the SGRs between medium- and large-lot detached homes was insufficient to warrant separate identification. ,0a[E> 1:: Enrollmen, urolectlOn C'onsultanrs