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PmiRcted Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 Pleasanton Unified School District to some parents having placed their children in private kindergarten programs and then enrolling them in the district schools starting with first grade. This is slightly lower than the 1.08 determined in our last study, but it has been amazingly consistent in numeric terms at 46 additional students in each of the last three years.' The 1.04 (4%) increase entering ninth grade may reflect a few students coming out of private K-8 programs. And the 0.96 rate in the "graduation" from the eleventh to twelfth grades probably represents a few high school dropouts. That is an exceptionally high rate entering twelfth. All of the remaining rates are smaller adjustments of between plus and minus 3%, which are not key trend factors by themselves, especially when the student data is separated into housing types and price ranges, as is shown in Appendix B. The more significant finding is the cumulative impact rate over several grades. Such a rate, especially between the first and eighth grades, shows primarily the net effect of families moving into and out of the district from the existing housing. (Whereas the rates entering first and ninth, as already mentioned, can reflect the impact of private schools.) For this study, we have calculated the cumulative rate from the first through eighth grades, which totals to a 9% increase (the "1.09" in the lower right corner of Table 3). What this means is that, if these rates continue, for every 100 students in first grade today there would be, seven years hence, 109 eighth graders from the same homes. Students from new dwellings would be in addition to that. This cumulative rate clearly shows that there is a net enrollment gain from housing turnover.lO Two other items in Tabie 3 are worth noting. The first is that the total student population is essentially the same as in 2000 from the units that existed then. Those residences had 11,815 students in 2000 and now provide 11,821, for a difference of just six students." This indicates that new housing was virtually the sole source of the recent enrollment growth. The second item to note is how much the distribution has shifted within that comparably sized K-12 population. There were 51 more students in kindergarten than twelfth in 2000 and the largest single- grade totals were in the fifth and sixth grades. There are now 248 less students in kindergarten than twelfth and the biggest populations are in the tenth and eleventh grades. This is one of the most definitive shifts that we have seen in our 20+ years in the forecasting business. In just five years, the distribution of your student population has dramatically aged from the existing housing. The severity of this difference can be seen in Chart 1 on the following page. A declining future student population is a near-certainty from these dwellings (in aggregate) as a result, with much larger amounts graduating out of the high schools than coming into the district in kindergarten. , The total enrollment growth was greater between kindergarten and first during those years because of students coming from new housing. " The cumulative rates shown in our recent studies included ninth grade, but this does not, so a direct comparison would be incorrect. Using the first-ta-ninth calculation of our past studies, the latest cumulative rate would be 1.13, which is an increase over the 1.11 that was determined in our last two studies. " The total from existing housing in October 2000 is less than the overall figure due to the exclusion of (1) students in underway tracts such as in Ruby Hill, (2) areas with a mix of existing and more recently built units, (3) incoming inter-district students and (4) a few students listed at unlocatable addresses. Enroliment Prolecflon ::,onsulrantc: Page~ 1