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Expected Forecasts Lend Use Forecosts The land use forecasts used in the expected traffic projections are based on informs- tion provided by the member jurisdictions of the TVTC (see TaMe 5-1). The 2010 land use forecasts do not represent buildout of the Tri-Valley area, as specified by the jurisdiction's general plan, nor do they represent ABAG projections. Rather, the forecasts represent each jurisdiction's estimate of absorption rates for new houses and businesses through 2010. Note that the estimates were based on a five percent vacancy rate. The "expected" forecasts show an increase in both housing and employment from that ass-reed under "baseline" forecasts discussed in the previous chapter. The "baseline" forecasts assume a 78 percent and 82 percent increase in housing and employment, respectively, between 1990 and 2010. Under the 'expected" forecast, the increase would be 84 and 99 percent, respectively, which exceeds historic growth trends. The reason for the increase is that Contra Costa County, Alameda County, Dublin, and Livermore had passed general plan Amendments that were not reflected in the baseline forecasts. Overall, "expected" forecasts balance employed residents to employment. 1990 land use data shows a slight irabalance with 122,882 employed residents and 111,656 jobs. The "expected" forecasts increase employment at a greater rate than housing resulting in 224,733 employed residents and 222,024 jobs. Note that no adjustments were made to the forecasts to reflect changes in the absorption rate as a result of higher traffic impact fees. Network Assumptions Staff from the Tri-Valley jurisdictions outlined the future road network assumptions. These network assumptions are shown in Table 5-2 and Figure 5-1. The major criterion that was considered when including a particular improvement in the future road network was whether that improvement was likely to be constructed by 2010. Not all of the future road network is currently funded. See Chapter 7 for a further discussion of the unfunded pertions. The local road widening and extension projects included in the future network are all included in local general plans and are all funded or expected to be funded by 2010. Many are expected to be funded with impact fees on new development or will be built by developers to serve their projects. Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc. 64