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Expected Forecasts <br /> <br /> Chapter Summary <br /> <br /> · Job and housing growth to the year 2010 is projected to be 99 percent and 84 <br /> percent, respectively, which exceeds historical growth trends..Jobs and housing <br /> would be in balance within the Tri-Valley. This would m~n~rnize, but not elimi- <br /> nate, in-commuting and out-commuting. <br /> * Highway gateways to the area (I-680 north and south, 1-580 over Alt~mont Pass <br /> and Dublin 'Grade, Crow Canyon Road to Castro Valley, and Vasco Road) would <br /> have more demand than capacity. <br /> , Unacceptable levels of service would also occur on 1-580 between Tsssajara Road <br /> and North Livermore Avenue and at 11 signalized intersections. <br /> · Transit mode share would not change appreciably from existing conditions, despite <br /> the BART extension. <br /> · Average vehicle ridership would not change appreciably from existing conditions. <br /> · Through traffic on the freeways would remain at 15 to 20 percent. <br /> <br /> The baseline forecasts were prepared to satisfy CCTA gnidelines, and they are <br /> compatible with ABAG Projections '90. However, there were several jurisdictions <br /> dissatisfied with the land use forecasts, which did not reflect general plan amend- <br /> ments approved after 1992. Also, the 2010 transportation network ass-reed in the <br /> baseline forecasts did not reflect current planning. This led to the development of the <br /> 'expected" scenario, which reflects each jurisdiction's most accurate prediction of 2010 <br /> land use totals and network expectations. <br /> <br /> This chapter describes the results of expected traffic forecasts using the Tri-Valley <br /> Traffic Model. <br /> <br />~ Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc. 63 <br /> <br /> <br />