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Tri-Valley Transportation Council │ 2020 Nexus Fee Update Study August 2021 │ Final 4 2 FORECAST OF NEW DEVELOPMENT AND TRAVEL DEMAND This chapter describes the methodology, assumption, and results for travel demand forecasting. 2.1 METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH Travel demand forecasting was conducted using the current version of Contra Costa Transportation Authority Travel Demand Model (CCTA TDM). The use of the CCTA TDM is consistent with the previous 2008 Nexus Study. Based on the outcome of initial discussions with the TAC, the following steps were taken regarding the development of travel demand forecasts: • Travel demand forecasting was reaffirmed to be based on the latest version of CCTA TDM. In 2019, the CCTA TDM was updated to incorporate assumptions consistent with the current (as of 2017) Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). A 2018 base year validation was also completed as part of that update. The growth projections were based on a base year of 2020 and a horizon year of 2040. Note that the CCTA TDM base year was updated to reflect 2020 conditions and that the 2040 horizon year was also modified to address the specific needs of this study. • Land use assumptions for households and employment were broken down for the 2020 base and 2040 horizon years by jurisdiction and were distributed to member agencies for review. Detailed data submitted to each jurisdiction included household and employment data at the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level. In addition, supplemental data from the Alameda County Transportation Commission (ACTC) travel demand model was also provided to member agencies within Alameda County. Kimley Horn worked closely with the individual agencies to appropriately finalize growth forecasts prior to their use in the final modeling for this study. Given that a recent land use forecast for the Tri-Valley region already exists as incorporated into the 2019 update of the CCTA Model, it is important to provide a context for the basis of this forecast. Specifically, the focus of this effort, unlike the more recent application of the CCTA model which was in support of a Region‐ Wide RTP, is confined to a limited area that primarily includes City of Dublin, Pleasanton, Livermore, Danville, and San Ramon and parts of unincorporated Contra Costa and Alameda counties. As this constitutes sub‐area analysis (although the entirety of the model will be used during analysis), the typical best practice includes carefully assessing land use within the study area to make sure that it is prepared in a manner consistent with the specific goals of the study for which the TDM will be applied. It is important to note that TDMs used in support of RTPs are prepared in accordance with strict control totals and, as such, their land use forecasts do not necessarily reflect certainty as to whether a given development will occur, rather they are more akin to a process of prioritization (the forecaster determines the magnitude and location of development that is most likely to occur rather than determining whether something will NOT occur). Not surprisingly, local jurisdictions sometimes have more detailed perspectives on whether certain concentrations of development within their communities will occur before the RTP planning horizon. A land use assessment, such as that carried out as part of a typical sub‐area analysis, is often an opportunity to reconsider jurisdictional land use input without the necessary limitations that an RTP puts on land use forecasting. Based on these considerations and information shared by the TAC members, as well as input from staff from the member agencies at several individual agency meetings, it was determined that the 2040 land use forecast for the study area as included in the 2019 version of the CCTA TDM had unlikely development patterns in several locations within the study area as compared to the collective perspectives of member