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Existinq Capacity/Baseline Inventory and Projected Shortfall and Need for Additional Sites The sites inventory includes the following components, discussed in further detail below. 1. Existing Residential Capacity, Baseline Inventory Existing Residential Zoning. This includes parcels zoned for residential uses with capacity to add new housing units, including sites re -zoned as part of prior Housing Element updates that have not yet been developed, as well as general capacity that exists within the City's single-family and multi -family residential zoning districts. This latter category includes both vacant parcels and those that are developed less intensively than the zoning allows (e.g., a single-family home on a parcel of sufficient size to allow for subdivision, or for construction of multiple units). Many, but not all of the sites in this part of the inventory are listed in the 5th Cycle Housing Element inventory (Exhibit B includes a summary of the high density "carryover" sites from the 5th Cycle Housing Element, reflected in the baseline inventory). In addition to carryover sites, as part of the effort to fully consider all available existing zoning capacity, a GIS -based analysis was used to more comprehensively identify parcels that are vacant or underutilized and which can be counted as part of this baseline inventory. Pipeline Projects. The "pipeline" of residential projects already entitled or expected to be entitled in the coming one- to two- year period, including projects under construction but which would not have building permits finaled by June 30, 2022.2 Exhibit B includes a summary of pipeline projects included in the baseline inventory. • ADU Production. Other anticipated housing production, including ADUs. HCD has issued a determination to allow local jurisdictions to "count" ADU production as a component of the sites inventory, based on a formula that considers the average annual number of ADU permits issued in the city over the last three years, multiplied over the Housing Element's eight-year planning period.3 Together, existing residentially -zoned properties, pipeline projects, and ADUs constitute a baseline of zoned capacity that can accommodate a portion of the City's RHNA. The difference between this number, and the RHNA in each category, represents the "gap" that will need to be addressed through sites that will need to be re -zoned to allow for residential uses as discussed later in this report. Table 2, below, summarizes the results of staffs initial evaluation of existing residential development capacity and the difference between that number and the RHNA. 2 The Housing Element 61h Cycle planning period technically begins on July 1, 2022, meaning that units for which building permits are finaled (i.e., approved for occupancy) on or after this date, can be included in the 2023-2031 inventory. 3 ABAG has prepared a preliminary ADU Affordability Report, currently under review by HCD, intended as a basis to allocate ADU production into the various RHNA affordability categories. If HCD accepts the reports analysis, ADU's would be permitted to be counted at the following income levels: 30% Very Low Income, 30% Low Income, 30% Moderate Income, 10% Above Moderate Income. The inventory assumes this allocation, but it may need to be adjusted based on ABAG's direction. Housing Element Update Planning Commission 4of19