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Future Growth Outlook The above summary of pending residential projects suggests that there will be relatively limited new residential growth in the next 12-24 months, with the 43 -lot Lund Ranch project adding the most significant increment of new units. However, if the Rosewood Commons project (305 units) moves forward, and entitlements are achieved for the Stoneridge Mall housing development (350-480 units), those projects, amounting to up to 800 new multi -family residential units could expect to come on-line (or at least begin construction) within the two to four year timeframe. Longer-term, the residential growth outlook is largely tied to outcomes of the City's Housing Element update that is currently underway and must be adopted no later than January, 2023. Among other components, the Housing Element must demonstrate the City has adequate land zoned to accommodate the allocation of future housing needs (Regional Housing Needs Allocation or RHNA), designated by the State and by the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG). Pleasanton's draft RHNA is currently set at 5,965 units, including units at a variety of income levels. Our preliminary analysis indicates the city may have sufficient property already zoned to accommodate approximately 2,500 of these units, leaving around 3,500 units at various levels of affordability for which additional sites will need to be found. The City began the Housing Element update process in late Spring, 2021, and through the remainder of the year will be focused on developing the initial inventory of sites for inclusion in the Housing Element, including sites that may need to be re -zoned to accommodate residential use. Note that the Housing Element's requirement to plan and zone for housing does not translate into a requirement to construct this housing — that will ultimately be driven by market demand and other economic factors as they evolve over the coming years. Thus, although the Housing Element and its re -zonings will address a planning period of eight years (2023-2032), actual build out of sites may occur over a longer or shorter period. City staff has already begun to engage with PUSD staff to understand issues and opportunities related to existing and planned school facilities in conjunction with prospective residential development. The City is mindful of concerns with respect to impacts of new housing on already oversubscribed schools, and looks forward to coordinating with PUSD to reduce potential impacts to the extent possible, as well as helping the District anticipate new demand and plan for new schools facilities to meet future community needs. More information on the Housing Element update can be found on the project website at httr)s-1/www.r)leasantonhousinaelement.com/. ubm tted Approved Ellen Clark Nelson Fialho Community Development Director City Manager Attachments: 1. September 15, 2021 Community Development Department Update 3