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Table 2: September 2016 Draft Preferred Scenario — PDA Hacienda Households Employment Plan Bay Area Growth Proposed 2010 2040 2010 2040 Projection ' Priority Development Area 1,300 8,000 12,500 19,600 (Hacienda) 2010-2040 Change (30 Years) 6,700 7,100 Number Per Year (Over 30 Years) 223 237 2010-2040 Percentage Change 515% 57% Average Percentage Change Per Year 17% 2% The Draft Preferred Scenario represents a significant departure from the anticipated growth in the City's General Plan, including the City's adopted and State-certified Housing Element, as well as from projections provided by ABAG in previous years (Housing Element 2015-2023 assumed an average household growth rate of 0 9% per year) Additionally, staff has communicated to ABAG that the household growth projected for Hacienda — an average annual rate of 17% a year — is unrealistic and oddly disproportionate to what is projected for the remainder of the City Also, somewhat problematic for that level of growth is that while Hacienda is shown as a potential PDA, there is no pending plan to develop a long-range plan to intensify development or include more residential opportunity sites for the area Without such a long-range plan, infrastructure and public services may not be sufficient to accommodate projected growth Further, the Draft Preferred Scenario far exceeds the City's current Growth Management Ordinance allotment of 235 residential units per year Projected annual average household growth in Pleasanton at 1 3% also outpaces ABAG's and MTC's desired growth rates for the greater Bay Area and Alameda County, which in the Draft Preferred Scenario are expected to increase by 1% and 1 1%, respectively Employment growth in the greater Bay Area and Alameda County is expected at average of 1 2% and 1 3% per year in the 30 years between 2010 and 2040, compared to 0 5% and 2% for Pleasanton (City-wide) and Hacienda, respectively Staff raised concern about the household and employment projections for the City and the underlying methodology for the Draft Preferred Scenario in letters to ABAG and MTC dated January 15, 2016, April 13, 2016, June 8, 2016 (letter 1), June 8, 2016 (letter 2), October 5, 2016, and October 13, 2016, but have not yet received any substantive response These letters are attached to this report as Attachment 2 Attachment 1 to this report is a letter to ABAG and MTC prepared on behalf of the City Council for signature by its members Next Steps ABAG and MTC are expected to adopt the Preferred Scenario at a joint meeting on November 17, 2016 The final Preferred Scenario will be used as the foundation for Plan Bay Area 2040, which is scheduled for final adoption in 2017 Page 4 of 5