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ALH Urban & Regional Economics definition of this area. ALH Economics will additionally estimate the level of Project demand likely to be generated from within this market area versus other sources of demand. Task 1.4. Demographic Estimates and Projections Compilation. Population and household demographic estimates and projections comprise o fundamental benchmark for purposes of ALH Economics' urban decay analysis. These estimates are an especially critical component of the retail demand and sales leakage analysis described in the following task. Accordingly, effort will be required to compile population and household estimates and projections for the market area. These will be prepared using generally accepted govemment resources to the extent possible. Other resources will be used as deemed necessary. Prior to proceeding with the retail demand and sales leakage analysis in the following task, these estimates and projections will be reviewed with ESA. This task will provide an opportunity to ensure that any future households generated by planned residential projects in the market area are included in the household projections. Task 1.5. Retail Demand and Sales Leakage Analysis. ALH Economics maintains o retail demand and sales leakage model that estimates retail spending potential based upon population /households, income, and consumer spending patterns, and determines the extent to which a study area is or is not capturing this spending potential. Retail categories in which spending is not fully captured are called "leakage" categories, while retail categories in which more soles are captured than are generated by residents are called "attraction categories." ALH Economics will conduct this analysis for Pleasanton and any other cities relevant to the market area. The retail demand and sales leakage analysis will be operated for the data (four quarters) most recently available as of the study initiation date. The findings will then be used as a basis for projecting the retail supply and demand conditions during the Project's projected first year of operations. This latter analysis will take into consideration the extent to which relevant retail demand is expected io increase based on household growth by the time of the Project's opening. The results will indicate the extent to which the market area cities are currently capturing existing regional demand in categories relevant to the Project, the extent of this attrodion, and the extent to which there may be other potential to capture relevant soles. Moreover, the results will indicate the extent to which future area household and income growth may impact the demand for new market area soles, coincident with the stabilization of the Project. Task 1.6. Conduct Site Reconnaissance. ALH Economics will visit the Project location, nearby shopping districts, and competitive retail and hotel operations. The primary purpose of these visits will be to understand the location of the site vis -o -vis competitive retailers and hotels (existing and planned, see Task 1.8) and to assess prospective impacts on existing retailers. This task will be conducted coincident with Task 1.7 activities. Task 1.7. Existing Comparable Impacts. ALH Economics hos developed o quantitative approach to estimate the extent of existing area sales that might be diverted by new or expanded retailers. The approach takes into consideration the extent to which existing area retailers share in regional demand, the extent to which area retailers experience net regional attraction or leakage in key retail categories, and the anticipated distribution of the prospective retailer's soles. The dato points most critical to this analysis include estimated area sales data, the Retail Demand and Sales Leakage Analysis, and the projected retailer sales. PAGE 5