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identify general development aspirations for areas within their jurisdictions. These places were mostly the Priority Development Areas (PDAs) already identified through the FOCUS program. They also included additional Growth Opportunity Areas, some similar to PDAs and others with different sustainability criteria. Based on local visions, plans and growth estimates, regional agencies distributed housing growth across the region, focusing on PDAs and Growth Opportunity Areas. ABAG in some cases supplemented the local forecast with additional units based on the typical characteristics of the relevant locally - selected place type. ABAG also distributed additional units to take advantage of significant existing and planned transit investment, and it assigned some units to locally identified areas that present regionally significant development opportunities for greater density. The Initial Vision Scenario accommodates 97 percent of new households within the existing urban footprint. Only 3 percent of the forecasted new homes require "greenfield development" (building on previously undeveloped lands). Priority Development Areas and Growth Opportunity Areas contain about 70 percent of the total growth (743,000 households). Among counties, three take the lion's share of growth: Santa Clara, Alameda and Contra Costa absorb a little over two- thirds of the total. These same counties also are anticipated to take the majority of the region's job growth (64 percent). (See Tables 13 -- 22.) The region's three major cities do a lot of the heavy lifting. Thirty -two percent of the forecast and proposed housing growth occurs in San Jose, San Francisco and Oakland. Seventeen percent goes to medium -sized cities like Fremont, Santa Rosa, Berkeley, Hayward, Concord, and Santa Clara. The analysis embodied in the Initial Vision Scenario is founded on the location of housing. Employment forecasting and distribution in this Scenario is not directly related to land use policy. Employment location can have a strong influence on travel demand, vehicle miles traveled, and vehicle greenhouse -gas emissions. In light of these factors and considering economic competitiveness, transit sustainability, and a balanced relationship between employment and housing, regional agencies will be embarking, with local partners, on further analysis regarding appropriate employment locations in relation to future housing growth and the transportation network. This will inform the development of the detailed scenarios. The Initial Vision Scenario reflects the transportation investments from MTC's current Regional Transportation (known as the Transportation 2035 Plan). To support the increased housing growth, it also includes some tentatively proposed improvements to the region's transit network. These include increased frequencies on over 70 local bus and several express bus routes, improved rail headways on BART, eBART, Caltrain, Muni Metro, VTA light -rail, and Altamont Commuter Express, and more dedicated bus lanes in San Francisco and Santa Clara counties, all resulting in overall growth in transit capacity. However, the Bay Area's transit system is financially unsustainable with operators unable to afford to run the current service levels into the future, much less expanded headways contemplated under the Initial Vision Scenario. MTC's Transit Sustainability Project will propose a more sustainable transit system for inclusion in the detailed scenarios to be tested. 2