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Measuring Performance Against Targets The Initial Vision Scenario results in a 12 percent per capita greenhouse gas emissions reduction from personal -use vehicles in 2035, compared to a 2005 base year. This reduction falls short of the region's state - mandated 15 percent per capita greenhouse gas emissions reduction target. It's clear that additional strategies will need to be employed if we want to attain the greenhouse gas targets, and other targets previously adopted by ABAG and MTC. MTC and ABAG have adopted a set of Plan Bay Area performance targets to describe in specific, measureable terms the region's commitment and progress toward the "three E" principles of sustainability (Economy, Environment, and Equity). The Initial Vision Scenario meets some regional targets, including accommodating all the projected housing need by income level (in other words, no more in- commuting by workers who live in other regions); reducing the financial burden of housing and transportation on low - income households by providing more affordable housing; and housing the majority of new development within the existing urban core. Also, more residents are projected to ride transit, walk and bike more than existing residents because much of the new housing is located close to services, amenities and jobs, and adjacent to transit in complete communities. (See Figure 1 for the target results.) The Initial Vision Scenario brings more residents into the region, thus increasing the total amount of travel. New residents will still drive for some trips. Even though vehicle miles traveled per capita in the Bay Area are projected to be lower in the Initial Vision Scenario than it is today, total miles driven within the region are projected to increase. With more Bay Area residents and more miles driven within the region, we can also expect an increase in the total number of injuries and fatalities. Health impacts from exposure to particulate emissions from automobiles and trucks are likewise projected to worsen with more driving; however, state and federal efforts to clean up heavy duty truck engines will more than off set the increases from automobiles, resulting in overall reductions sooty particulate pollution. Finally, it must be said that while bringing more people into the Bay Area will increase the amount of driving and collis ions within the reg ion, it is still a net win in the larger sense. The amount of overall driving and greenhouse gas em issions statewide is certainly less than if the new residents were commuting to Bay Area jobs from communities in neighboring regions that do not offer such amenities. Next Steps The Initial Vision Scenario is offered as basis for discussion with local governments, stakeholders, and the general public about how the Bay Area can accommodate all its population growth over the next quarter century. It is by no means a fait accompli. Over the next several months we will seek input through elected official briefings, local government staff discussions, and public workshops. The comments received will assist ABAG and MTC in developing and testing a range of detailed scenarios that achieve the greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. 3