RES 00059 - Laserfiche WebLink

2. Updated Forecast Conditions Comparison of New and Old Foro<asls of Household and Job Growth The following two tables compare the number of forecast households and jobs in 2010 used in the 1995 Tri-Yalley Transportation Plan and more recent forecasts. The overall observation is that the forecasts upon which the 1995 Tri~Yalley Transporta- tion Plan was based were more rocust than what is now expected to occur. The 1995 Plan forecast that the Tri-Yalley would have 139,659 households and 202,886 jobs 1I1 2010. ABAG's Projections '98, the forecasts now available for transportation planning, forecasts that the Tri-Valley would have 123,454 households and 198,638 jobs in 2010. These fore- casts represent a 12 percent reduction in expected households and a two percent reduction in jobs for the year 2010. This expected reduction in household and job growth used in the 1995 Tri-Valley Trans- portation Plan suggests that traffic volumes will also be generally lower than that expected in the Plan. Lower traffic volumes would mean that the TSOs established in the Plan would be more likely to be met, 10 most cases, with the actions established in the Plan to achieve those TSOs. As in the 1995 Tri-Valley Transportati-en Plan, the "buildout" of adopted general plans will exceed current forecasts, both for 2010 and 2020. This general plan buildout, which is based on policies existing at the time of the 1995 Tri~Valley Plan, would occur at some un- defined point in the future. Since it exceeds both 2010 and 2020 forecasts, it would likely occur sometime after 2020. 18 April 2000 Page 9